--- title: "Aurum case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Aurum ($2.67) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.94% from 16 items with odds, observed 92.14% over 3,808 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aurum rendered: 2026-11-11T14:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Aurum](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aurum) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Aurum A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aurum?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aurum?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aurum) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aurum?window=all) Price · $2.67 · 5.33 coins Advertised RTP · 89.94% · EV $2.40 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.14% · 3,808 openings, odds method Variance · 8.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 84.46% ±31.17 332 openings 7 days · 92.23% ±11.46 2,457 openings 30 days · 92.14% ±9.20 3,808 openings since tracking started · 92.14% ±9.20 3,808 openings 52.5% 84.5% 116.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aurum?window=24h) | 332 | 84.46% ±31.2 | −0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aurum?window=7d) | 2,457 | 92.23% ±11.5 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aurum) | 3,808 | 92.14% ±9.20 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aurum?window=all) | 3,808 | 92.14% ±9.20 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,832 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-death-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $226 452 coins | 4.7% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.04× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $109 217 coins | 4.5% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.52× | | [Glock-18 \| Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sand-dune-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $62.66 125 coins | 3.9% | 8 | 5.7 | 1.39× | | [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $29.21 58.42 coins | 2.4% | 8 | 7.7 | 1.04× | | [SCAR-20 \| Palm (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-palm-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $24.29 48.58 coins | 2.5% | 9 | 9.6 | 0.94× | | [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $21.68 43.36 coins | 4.5% | 19 | 19.2 | 0.99× | | [Five-SeveN \| Jungle (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $17.64 35.28 coins | 5.5% | 24 | 28.7 | 0.84× | | [P2000 \| Coach Class (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coach-class-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $12.58 25.15 coins | 5.2% | 28 | 38.3 | 0.73× | | [M249 \| Jungle DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-jungle-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $11.24 22.47 coins | 4.7% | 32 | 38.3 | 0.84× | | [MP9 \| Dry Season (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dry-season-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $11.19 22.38 coins | 7.0% | 52 | 57.5 | 0.90× | | [SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-desert-blossom-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $10.13 20.26 coins | 8.5% | 98 | 76.6 | 1.28× | | [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $8.85 17.69 coins | 7.4% | 85 | 76.6 | 1.11× | | [MAG-7 \| Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-sand-dune-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $8.06 16.12 coins | 8.4% | 94 | 95.8 | 0.98× | | [MP9 \| Airlock (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $6.34 12.68 coins | 13.2% | 207 | 191.6 | 1.08× | | [Five-SeveN \| Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $5.52 11.03 coins | 17.3% | 327 | 287.4 | 1.14× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) | 75.5% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.2% | 2,837 | 2893.2 | 0.98× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir SSG 08 | Death Strike (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-death-strike-factory-new) Hidden $2.67 5.33 coins $226 452 coins 84.85x 2026-11-06 02:03 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Death Strike (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-death-strike-factory-new) [yanoee](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/yanoee) $2.67 5.33 coins $226 452 coins 84.85x 2026-11-05 18:01 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=aurum) [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $2.67 5.33 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $2.67 5.33 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) [chxngezs](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/chxngezs) $2.67 5.33 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $2.67 5.33 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $2.67 5.33 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $2.67 5.33 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $2.67 5.33 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $2.67 5.33 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $2.67 5.33 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:21 UTC [MP9 | Airlock (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-factory-new) Hidden $2.67 5.33 coins $6.34 12.68 coins 2.38x 2026-11-11 14:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.67 | 89.94% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Classified 0.1% covert 2.6% industrial 1.1% #d32ee6 0.2% Uncommon 0.3% Consumer Grade 0.8% consumer 88.0% blue 2.0% classified 5.0% best hit $226 (84.85x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.94 on average: an expected loss of $10.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt