--- title: "AWPs Only case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "AWPs Only ($51.83) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 70.37% over 132 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/awps-only rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [AWPs Only](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/awps-only) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · AWPs Only A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/awps-only?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/awps-only?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/awps-only) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/awps-only?window=all) Price · $51.83 · 104 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $46.65 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 70.37% · 132 openings, odds method Variance · 4.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 88.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 73.10% ±40.50 108 openings 30 days · 70.37% ±36.64 132 openings since tracking started · 70.37% ±36.64 132 openings 32.0% 73.3% 114.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/awps-only?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/awps-only?window=7d) | 108 | 73.10% ±40.5 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/awps-only) | 132 | 70.37% ±36.6 | −1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/awps-only?window=all) | 132 | 70.37% ±36.6 | −1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 132 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-boom-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $557 1,113 coins | 14.9% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.21× | | [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $438 876 coins | 11.7% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $424 847 coins | 11.4% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.61× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Doodle Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-doodle-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $361 722 coins | 9.7% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.61× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $290 580 coins | 7.8% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $269 538 coins | 7.2% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.61× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $261 522 coins | 7.0% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.61× | | [AWP \| BOOM (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $259 519 coins | 7.0% | 4 | 1.7 | 2.42× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $236 472 coins | 6.3% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.61× | | [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) | 10.8% | $11.62 23.23 coins | 2.7% | 17 | 14.2 | 1.20× | | [AWP \| Duality (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-factory-new) | 12.0% | $9.77 19.54 coins | 2.5% | 14 | 15.8 | 0.88× | | [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 12.0% | $9.67 19.34 coins | 2.5% | 20 | 15.8 | 1.26× | | [AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $9.67 19.33 coins | 2.5% | 18 | 15.8 | 1.14× | | [AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) | 14.0% | $8.73 17.46 coins | 2.6% | 18 | 18.5 | 0.97× | | [AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) | 14.0% | $7.71 15.42 coins | 2.3% | 27 | 18.5 | 1.46× | | [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $6.51 13.02 coins | 2.0% | 7 | 18.5 | 0.38× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-boom-factory-new) Hidden $51.83 104 coins $557 1,113 coins 10.74x 2026-11-10 12:16 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-boom-factory-new) Hidden $51.83 104 coins $557 1,113 coins 10.74x 2026-11-10 12:16 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=awps-only) [AWP | Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) Hidden $51.83 104 coins $7.71 15.42 coins 0.15x 2026-11-10 12:17 UTC [AWP | Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) Hidden $51.83 104 coins $7.71 15.42 coins 0.15x 2026-11-10 12:17 UTC [AWP | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) Hidden $51.83 104 coins $6.51 13.02 coins 0.13x 2026-11-10 12:17 UTC [AWP | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) Hidden $51.83 104 coins $6.51 13.02 coins 0.13x 2026-11-10 12:17 UTC [AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) Hidden $51.83 104 coins $9.67 19.34 coins 0.19x 2026-11-10 12:17 UTC [AWP | Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) Hidden $51.83 104 coins $11.62 23.23 coins 0.22x 2026-11-10 12:17 UTC [AWP | Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-minimal-wear) Hidden $51.83 104 coins $9.67 19.33 coins 0.19x 2026-11-10 12:17 UTC [AWP | Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-minimal-wear) [prudent](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/prudent) $51.83 104 coins $9.67 19.33 coins 0.19x 2026-11-10 12:17 UTC [AWP | Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-minimal-wear) Hidden $51.83 104 coins $9.67 19.33 coins 0.19x 2026-11-10 12:16 UTC [AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) Hidden $51.83 104 coins $8.73 17.46 coins 0.17x 2026-11-10 12:16 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $51.83 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Classified 2.5% covert 3.8% Restricted 1.3% other 1.3% restricted 15.3% classified 53.3% industrial 10.8% pink 12.0% best hit $557 (10.74x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt