--- title: "Aztec case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Aztec ($5.86) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.97% from 16 items with odds, observed 89.99% over 258 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aztec rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Aztec](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aztec) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Aztec A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aztec?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aztec?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aztec) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aztec?window=all) Price · $5.86 · 11.72 coins Advertised RTP · 89.97% · EV $5.27 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.99% · 258 openings, odds method Variance · 3.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 88.64% ±22.78 248 openings 30 days · 89.99% ±22.33 258 openings since tracking started · 89.99% ±22.33 258 openings -0.5% 90.0% 180.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aztec?window=24h) | 6 | 33.50% ±146.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aztec?window=7d) | 248 | 88.64% ±22.8 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aztec) | 258 | 89.99% ±22.3 | +0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/aztec?window=all) | 258 | 89.99% ±22.3 | +0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 258 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $57.70 115 coins | 10.9% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.39× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Convoy (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-convoy-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $51.73 103 coins | 9.8% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.16× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $33.56 67.12 coins | 12.7% | 8 | 5.2 | 1.55× | | [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $29.21 58.42 coins | 11.1% | 7 | 5.2 | 1.36× | | [P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $26.85 53.7 coins | 10.2% | 6 | 5.2 | 1.16× | | [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $22.72 45.43 coins | 8.6% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.58× | | [Dual Berettas \| Pyre (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-pyre-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $20.37 40.73 coins | 7.7% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.97× | | [Tec-9 \| Rust Leaf (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rust-leaf-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $15.79 31.58 coins | 6.0% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.97× | | [MP7 \| Orange Peel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-orange-peel-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $8.21 16.41 coins | 4.7% | 9 | 7.7 | 1.16× | | [MP9 \| Airlock (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $6.34 12.68 coins | 3.6% | 1 | 7.7 | 0.13× | | [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $6.27 12.54 coins | 3.6% | 6 | 7.7 | 0.78× | | [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $3.07 6.14 coins | 2.3% | 9 | 10.3 | 0.87× | | [FAMAS \| CaliCamo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-calicamo-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $1.60 3.2 coins | 2.4% | 20 | 20.6 | 0.97× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.81 1.61 coins | 1.5% | 18 | 25.8 | 0.70× | | [P90 \| Cocoa Rampage (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cocoa-rampage-factory-new) | 23.0% | $0.52 1.04 coins | 2.3% | 72 | 59.3 | 1.21× | | [M249 \| Aztec (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-aztec-field-tested) | 32.0% | $0.41 0.83 coins | 2.5% | 85 | 82.6 | 1.03× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=aztec) [FAMAS | CaliCamo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-calicamo-factory-new) Hidden $5.86 11.72 coins $1.60 3.2 coins 0.27x 2026-11-10 17:30 UTC [P90 | Cocoa Rampage (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cocoa-rampage-factory-new) Hidden $5.86 11.72 coins $0.52 1.04 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 17:30 UTC [P90 | Cocoa Rampage (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cocoa-rampage-factory-new) Hidden $5.86 11.72 coins $0.52 1.04 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 17:30 UTC [MP7 | Orange Peel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-orange-peel-factory-new) Hidden $5.86 11.72 coins $8.21 16.41 coins 1.40x 2026-11-10 17:30 UTC [M249 | Aztec (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-aztec-field-tested) Hidden $5.86 11.72 coins $0.41 0.83 coins 0.07x 2026-11-10 17:30 UTC [P90 | Cocoa Rampage (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cocoa-rampage-factory-new) Hidden $5.86 11.72 coins $0.52 1.04 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 17:30 UTC [FAMAS | CaliCamo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-calicamo-factory-new) Hidden $5.86 11.72 coins $1.60 3.2 coins 0.27x 2026-11-10 11:18 UTC [P90 | Cocoa Rampage (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cocoa-rampage-factory-new) Hidden $5.86 11.72 coins $0.52 1.04 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 11:18 UTC [P90 | Cocoa Rampage (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cocoa-rampage-factory-new) Hidden $5.86 11.72 coins $0.52 1.04 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 11:18 UTC [M249 | Aztec (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-aztec-field-tested) Hidden $5.86 11.72 coins $0.41 0.83 coins 0.07x 2026-11-10 11:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.86 | 89.97% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert knife 1.0% extraordinary 3.0% #d32ee6 2.0% covert 4.0% industrial 13.0% Industrial Grade 2.0% classified 3.0% restricted 13.0% pink 4.0% blue 23.0% violet 32.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.97 on average: an expected loss of $10.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt