--- title: "Backstab case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Backstab ($189.39) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 45.60% over 8 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/backstab rendered: 2026-11-11T20:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Backstab](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/backstab) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Backstab A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/backstab?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/backstab?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/backstab) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/backstab?window=all) Price · $189.39 · 379 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $170.45 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 45.60% · 8 openings, odds method Variance · 2.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 21.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 63.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 8 openings · below min 30 days · 8 openings · below min since tracking started · 8 openings · below min -0.5% 75.8% 152.0% **Small sample.** 8 openings and 1.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/backstab?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/backstab?window=7d) | 8 | 45.60% ±105.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/backstab) | 8 | 45.60% ±105.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/backstab?window=all) | 8 | 45.60% ±105.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,000 | $6,327 12,654 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-night-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,861 3,722 coins | 10.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 20 | $506 1,012 coins | 14.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-lore-factory-new) | 15.0% | $290 580 coins | 25.5% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 15.0% | $267 535 coins | 23.5% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 20.0% | $58.23 116 coins | 6.8% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.25× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-scorched-field-tested) | 20.0% | $57.14 114 coins | 6.7% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.25× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 23.9% | $56.77 114 coins | 8.0% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.57× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=backstab) [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-lore-factory-new) Hidden $189 379 coins $290 580 coins 1.53x 2026-11-07 21:18 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-scorched-field-tested) Hidden $189 379 coins $57.14 114 coins 0.30x 2026-11-07 21:18 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $189 379 coins $56.77 114 coins 0.30x 2026-11-07 21:18 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $189 379 coins $56.77 114 coins 0.30x 2026-11-07 21:18 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $189 379 coins $56.77 114 coins 0.30x 2026-11-07 21:18 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-forest-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $189 379 coins $58.23 116 coins 0.31x 2026-11-07 21:18 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-forest-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $189 379 coins $58.23 116 coins 0.31x 2026-11-07 21:18 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-scorched-field-tested) [Andushka](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Andushka) $189 379 coins $57.14 114 coins 0.30x 2026-11-07 21:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $189 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #EB4B4B 0.1% covert 76.0% gold 23.9% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt