--- title: "Baller Knife case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Baller Knife ($656.92) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 14 items with odds, observed 66.26% over 104 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/baller-knife rendered: 2026-11-11T13:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Baller Knife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/baller-knife) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Baller Knife A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/baller-knife?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/baller-knife?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/baller-knife) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/baller-knife?window=all) Price · $656.92 · 1,314 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $591.23 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 66.26% · 104 openings, odds method Variance · 8.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 87.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 18 openings · below min 7 days · 96 openings · below min 30 days · 104 openings · below min since tracking started · 104 openings · below min -0.5% 67.3% 135.0% **Small sample.** 104 openings and 4.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/baller-knife?window=24h) | 18 | 0.00% ±134.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/baller-knife?window=7d) | 96 | 37.03% ±58.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/baller-knife) | 104 | 66.26% ±55.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/baller-knife?window=all) | 104 | 66.26% ±55.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 104 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 100 | $12.1K 24,151 coins | 20.4% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.92× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 100 | $9,356 18,711 coins | 15.8% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 100 | $7,714 15,428 coins | 13.0% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.96× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 100 | $6,322 12,643 coins | 10.7% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $4,425 8,850 coins | 7.5% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $3,326 6,652 coins | 5.6% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $2,877 5,753 coins | 4.9% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 100 | $2,643 5,286 coins | 4.5% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.96× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $2,371 4,742 coins | 4.0% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.92× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 100 | $2,174 4,347 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 100 | $2,125 4,249 coins | 3.6% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.96× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 100 | $1,946 3,893 coins | 3.3% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.92× | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,769 3,538 coins | 3.0% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 87.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 95 | 90.5 | 1.05× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $657 1,314 coins $12.1K 24,151 coins 18.38x 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $657 1,314 coins $12.1K 24,151 coins 18.38x 2026-11-03 13:10 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $657 1,314 coins $7,714 15,428 coins 11.74x 2026-11-03 13:10 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $657 1,314 coins $2,643 5,286 coins 4.02x 2026-11-09 13:09 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $657 1,314 coins $2,371 4,742 coins 3.61x 2026-11-06 06:00 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $657 1,314 coins $2,371 4,742 coins 3.61x 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $657 1,314 coins $2,125 4,249 coins 3.23x 2026-11-03 13:10 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $657 1,314 coins $1,946 3,893 coins 2.96x 2026-11-09 13:08 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $657 1,314 coins $1,946 3,893 coins 2.96x 2026-11-06 06:00 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=baller-knife) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $657 1,314 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 06:44 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $657 1,314 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 06:44 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [Milez](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Milez) $657 1,314 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 06:44 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $657 1,314 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 06:44 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $657 1,314 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 06:44 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $657 1,314 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 06:44 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $657 1,314 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:24 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $657 1,314 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:24 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $657 1,314 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:24 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [Sanityy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Sanityy) $657 1,314 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:24 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $657 | 90.00% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.0% knifes 1.0% legendary 1.0% Covert 1.0% #4b69ff 87.0% best hit $12.1K (18.38x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt