--- title: "Baller case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Baller ($41.35) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 16 items with odds, observed 106.88% over 18 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/baller rendered: 2026-11-11T15:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Baller](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/baller) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Baller A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/baller?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/baller?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/baller) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/baller?window=all) Price · $41.35 · 82.69 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $37.21 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 106.88% · 18 openings, odds method Variance · 7.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 10 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 18 openings · below min 30 days · 18 openings · below min since tracking started · 18 openings · below min -0.5% 115.0% 230.5% **Small sample.** 18 openings and 1.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/baller?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/baller?window=7d) | 18 | 106.88% ±123.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/baller) | 18 | 106.88% ±123.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/baller?window=all) | 18 | 106.88% ±123.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| mousesports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mousesports-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 2,000 | $3,498 6,995 coins | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,241 2,481 coins | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $334 668 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $304 607 coins | 4.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $253 506 coins | 27.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $196 392 coins | 26.4% | 2 | 0.9 | — | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $93.28 187 coins | 12.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $58.12 116 coins | 7.8% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 10.0% | $13.85 27.7 coins | 3.7% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× | | [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-factory-new) | 10.0% | $13.47 26.94 coins | 3.6% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× | | [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 10.0% | $13.44 26.87 coins | 3.6% | 4 | 1.8 | 2.22× | | [P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.71 1.43 coins | 0.2% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× | | [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.64 1.27 coins | 0.2% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× | | [MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.58 1.17 coins | 0.2% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× | | [P90 \| Traction (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.54 1.07 coins | 0.1% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× | | [MP9 \| Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-factory-new) | 10.1% | $0.51 1.01 coins | 0.1% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.65× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=baller) [MP9 | Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-factory-new) Hidden $41.35 82.69 coins $0.51 1.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [MP9 | Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-factory-new) Hidden $41.35 82.69 coins $0.51 1.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) Hidden $41.35 82.69 coins $304 607 coins 7.34x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) Hidden $41.35 82.69 coins $13.44 26.87 coins 0.32x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [P90 | Traction (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-factory-new) Hidden $41.35 82.69 coins $0.54 1.07 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-factory-new) [rekztimmy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/rekztimmy) $41.35 82.69 coins $13.47 26.94 coins 0.33x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $41.35 82.69 coins $0.64 1.27 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) Hidden $41.35 82.69 coins $13.44 26.87 coins 0.32x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [MAG-7 | Core Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-field-tested) Hidden $41.35 82.69 coins $0.58 1.17 coins 0.01x 2026-11-08 20:23 UTC [UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $41.35 82.69 coins $0.64 1.27 coins 0.02x 2026-11-08 20:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $41.35 | 89.99% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 0.1% covert 25.6% classified 0.3% rare 4.0% covert knife 5.0% mil spec 25.1% restricted 30.0% violet 10.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt