--- title: "Balloon case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Balloon ($1,914.61) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 78.70% over 330 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/balloon rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Balloon](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/balloon) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Balloon A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/balloon?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/balloon?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/balloon) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/balloon?window=all) Price · $1,914.61 · 3,829 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $1,723.15 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 78.70% · 330 openings, odds method Variance · 7.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 24 openings · below min 7 days · 78.70% ±29.69 330 openings 30 days · 78.70% ±29.69 330 openings since tracking started · 78.70% ±29.69 330 openings -0.5% 71.0% 142.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/balloon?window=24h) | 24 | 31.96% ±110.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/balloon?window=7d) | 330 | 78.70% ±29.7 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/balloon) | 330 | 78.70% ±29.7 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/balloon?window=all) | 330 | 78.70% ±29.7 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 330 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $112K 223,312 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $26.7K 53,347 coins | 7.7% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.61× | | [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 200 | $25.5K 51,019 coins | 7.4% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.61× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $18.7K 37,392 coins | 21.7% | 3 | 6.6 | 0.45× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $15.1K 30,112 coins | 26.2% | 9 | 9.9 | 0.91× | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 29 | $10.4K 20,866 coins | 21.2% | 18 | 11.6 | 1.56× | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) | 15.0% | $525 1,051 coins | 4.6% | 45 | 49.5 | 0.91× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 15.0% | $401 802 coins | 3.5% | 37 | 49.5 | 0.75× | | [★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 15.0% | $259 519 coins | 2.3% | 49 | 49.5 | 0.99× | | [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) | 15.0% | $151 302 coins | 1.3% | 55 | 49.5 | 1.11× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-urban-masked-factory-new) | 15.0% | $101 202 coins | 0.9% | 61 | 49.5 | 1.23× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 15.4% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 51 | 51.0 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) Hidden $1,915 3,829 coins $26.7K 53,347 coins 13.93x 2026-11-06 00:45 UTC [Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $1,915 3,829 coins $25.5K 51,019 coins 13.32x 2026-11-06 00:45 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) Hidden $1,915 3,829 coins $18.7K 37,392 coins 9.76x 2026-11-09 23:23 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) [djpeeh](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/djpeeh) $1,915 3,829 coins $18.7K 37,392 coins 9.76x 2026-11-05 22:01 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) Hidden $1,915 3,829 coins $18.7K 37,392 coins 9.76x 2026-11-05 11:26 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) Hidden $1,915 3,829 coins $15.1K 30,112 coins 7.86x 2026-11-09 23:23 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) Hidden $1,915 3,829 coins $15.1K 30,112 coins 7.86x 2026-11-09 23:23 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) Hidden $1,915 3,829 coins $15.1K 30,112 coins 7.86x 2026-11-09 23:22 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) Hidden $1,915 3,829 coins $15.1K 30,112 coins 7.86x 2026-11-08 01:23 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) Hidden $1,915 3,829 coins $15.1K 30,112 coins 7.86x 2026-11-07 03:13 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=balloon) [Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) Hidden $1,915 3,829 coins $151 302 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $1,915 3,829 coins $101 202 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $1,915 3,829 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $1,915 3,829 coins $401 802 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $1,915 3,829 coins $101 202 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $1,915 3,829 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $1,915 3,829 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [★ Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-safari-mesh-factory-new) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $1,915 3,829 coins $259 519 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $1,915 3,829 coins $401 802 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC [★ Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-safari-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $1,915 3,829 coins $259 519 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,915 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 19.1% remarkable 0.5% extraordinary 5.0% classified 30.0% covert knife 15.0% knifes 15.0% #4b69ff 15.4% best hit $26.7K (13.93x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt