--- title: "BALLYBANG case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "BALLYBANG ($56.15) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 5 items with odds, observed 69.47% over 4,978 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ballybang rendered: 2026-11-11T13:44Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [BALLYBANG](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ballybang) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · BALLYBANG A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ballybang?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ballybang?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ballybang) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ballybang?window=all) Price · $56.15 · 112 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $50.53 from 5 items Observed RTP, 30d · 69.47% · 4,978 openings, odds method Variance · 107.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 200 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 828 openings · below min 7 days · 67.36% ±30.24 4,516 openings 30 days · 69.47% ±28.80 4,978 openings since tracking started · 69.47% ±28.80 4,978 openings -0.5% 69.8% 140.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ballybang?window=24h) | 828 | 68.56% ±70.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ballybang?window=7d) | 4,516 | 67.36% ±30.2 | −1.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ballybang) | 4,978 | 69.47% ±28.8 | −1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ballybang?window=all) | 4,978 | 69.47% ±28.8 | −1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,978 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $9,318 18,637 coins | 46.1% | 11 | 12.4 | 0.88× | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $6,234 12,468 coins | 30.8% | 5 | 12.4 | 0.40× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $2,340 4,679 coins | 11.6% | 9 | 12.4 | 0.72× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $2,317 4,635 coins | 11.5% | 17 | 12.4 | 1.37× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) | 99.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 4,936 | 4928.2 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $56.15 112 coins $9,318 18,637 coins 166.0x 2026-11-11 11:09 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $56.15 112 coins $9,318 18,637 coins 166.0x 2026-11-11 11:09 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) [syltfanxx](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/syltfanxx) $56.15 112 coins $9,318 18,637 coins 166.0x 2026-11-10 10:28 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $56.15 112 coins $9,318 18,637 coins 166.0x 2026-11-10 10:26 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $56.15 112 coins $9,318 18,637 coins 166.0x 2026-11-09 16:48 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $56.15 112 coins $9,318 18,637 coins 166.0x 2026-11-07 15:26 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $56.15 112 coins $9,318 18,637 coins 166.0x 2026-11-06 21:28 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $56.15 112 coins $9,318 18,637 coins 166.0x 2026-11-06 13:45 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) [BoldFever7237](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BoldFever7237) $56.15 112 coins $9,318 18,637 coins 166.0x 2026-11-05 23:40 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $56.15 112 coins $9,318 18,637 coins 166.0x 2026-11-05 15:00 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=ballybang) [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $56.15 112 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $56.15 112 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $56.15 112 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $56.15 112 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $56.15 112 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $56.15 112 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $56.15 112 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) [nigxoo](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/nigxoo) $56.15 112 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $56.15 112 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $56.15 112 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $56.15 | 90.00% | 5 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.5% #ffd700 0.3% extraordinary 0.3% consumer 99.0% best hit $9,318 (166.0x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt