--- title: "Basalt case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Basalt ($7.49) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.94% from 8 items with odds, observed 83.78% over 6,968 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/basalt rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Basalt](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/basalt) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Basalt A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/basalt?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/basalt?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/basalt) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/basalt?window=all) Price · $7.49 · 14.98 coins Advertised RTP · 89.94% · EV $6.74 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.78% · 6,968 openings, odds method Variance · 56.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 143 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 96.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 63.55% ±54.48 733 openings 7 days · 82.02% ±22.41 4,332 openings 30 days · 83.78% ±17.67 6,968 openings since tracking started · 83.78% ±17.67 6,968 openings 8.5% 63.5% 118.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/basalt?window=24h) | 733 | 63.55% ±54.5 | −0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/basalt?window=7d) | 4,332 | 82.02% ±22.4 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/basalt) | 6,968 | 83.78% ±17.7 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/basalt?window=all) | 6,968 | 83.78% ±17.7 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,982 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,350 2,701 coins | 20.0% | 6 | 7.0 | 0.86× | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Rifles](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $470 940 coins | 17.5% | 19 | 17.5 | 1.09× | | [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 286 | $358 716 coins | 18.6% | 18 | 24.4 | 0.74× | | [Souvenir USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $250 500 coins | 16.7% | 31 | 31.4 | 0.99× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 118 | $100 200 coins | 12.6% | 53 | 59.3 | 0.89× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) | 1 in 87 | $50.13 100 coins | 8.6% | 89 | 80.3 | 1.11× | | [USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 10.0% | $4.00 8 coins | 5.9% | 675 | 698.2 | 0.97× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 86.9% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 6,091 | 6063.9 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $7.49 14.98 coins $1,350 2,701 coins 180.3x 2026-11-10 21:17 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $7.49 14.98 coins $1,350 2,701 coins 180.3x 2026-11-09 08:52 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $7.49 14.98 coins $1,350 2,701 coins 180.3x 2026-11-07 18:50 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $7.49 14.98 coins $1,350 2,701 coins 180.3x 2026-11-03 10:58 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $7.49 14.98 coins $1,350 2,701 coins 180.3x 2026-11-03 00:32 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $7.49 14.98 coins $1,350 2,701 coins 180.3x 2026-11-03 00:09 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Rifles](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $7.49 14.98 coins $470 940 coins 62.78x 2026-11-11 01:12 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Rifles](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $7.49 14.98 coins $470 940 coins 62.78x 2026-11-09 19:37 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Rifles](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $7.49 14.98 coins $470 940 coins 62.78x 2026-11-09 15:39 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Rifles](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $7.49 14.98 coins $470 940 coins 62.78x 2026-11-08 09:29 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=basalt) [USP-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) Hidden $7.49 14.98 coins $4.00 8 coins 0.53x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $7.49 14.98 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $7.49 14.98 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $7.49 14.98 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $7.49 14.98 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $7.49 14.98 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $7.49 14.98 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [BG2x](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BG2x) $7.49 14.98 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-scorched-field-tested) Hidden $7.49 14.98 coins $100 200 coins 13.37x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $7.49 14.98 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.49 | 89.94% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.3% Rifles 0.3% industrial 0.4% Industrial Grade 1.1% Rare 10.0% #4b69ff 86.9% best hit $1,350 (180.3x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.94 on average: an expected loss of $10.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt