--- title: "Battle Knight case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Battle Knight ($40.46) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 52.07% over 11 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/battle-knight rendered: 2026-11-11T18:34Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Battle Knight](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/battle-knight) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Battle Knight A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/battle-knight?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/battle-knight?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/battle-knight) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/battle-knight?window=all) Price · $40.46 · 80.92 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $36.41 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 52.07% · 11 openings, odds method Variance · 3.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 3 openings · below min 30 days · 11 openings · below min since tracking started · 11 openings · below min -0.5% 147.0% 294.5% **Small sample.** 11 openings and 2.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/battle-knight?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/battle-knight?window=7d) | 3 | 71.67% ±222.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/battle-knight) | 11 | 52.07% ±115.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/battle-knight?window=all) | 11 | 52.07% ±115.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,441 4,881 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 1,667 | $1,749 3,497 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $664 1,327 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $658 1,315 coins | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $633 1,265 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $217 435 coins | 6.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Souvenir P90 \| Run and Hide (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-run-and-hide-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $166 333 coins | 13.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $122 244 coins | 16.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) | 11.0% | $49.74 99.48 coins | 15.0% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.65× | | [SG 553 \| Tornado (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tornado-factory-new) | 11.0% | $39.54 79.08 coins | 11.9% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× | | [USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-minimal-wear) | 11.0% | $33.60 67.19 coins | 10.1% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.65× | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 11.0% | $24.60 49.19 coins | 7.4% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [AUG \| Carved Jade (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-factory-new) | 11.0% | $13.72 27.44 coins | 4.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× | | [MP5-SD \| Autumn Twilly (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-autumn-twilly-factory-new) | 11.0% | $4.46 8.91 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [SSG 08 \| Parallax (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-parallax-factory-new) | 11.0% | $3.66 7.31 coins | 1.1% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.48× | | [Glock-18 \| Off World (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-off-world-factory-new) | 13.5% | $0.43 0.86 coins | 0.2% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.35× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=battle-knight) [USP-S | Orion (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-minimal-wear) Hidden $40.46 80.92 coins $33.60 67.19 coins 0.83x 2026-11-10 18:51 UTC [M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) Hidden $40.46 80.92 coins $49.74 99.48 coins 1.23x 2026-11-10 18:51 UTC [SSG 08 | Parallax (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-parallax-factory-new) [EliteLynx4233](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/EliteLynx4233) $40.46 80.92 coins $3.66 7.31 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 18:51 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $40.46 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 37.0% covert 0.3% epic 0.1% Covert 5.2% gray 11.0% Rare 11.0% #8847ff 22.0% mil spec 13.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt