--- title: "Bayonets case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Bayonets ($247.86) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 83.83% over 20 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bayonets rendered: 2026-11-11T13:32Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Bayonets](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bayonets) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Bayonets A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bayonets?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bayonets?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bayonets) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bayonets?window=all) Price · $247.86 · 496 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $223.07 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.83% · 20 openings, odds method Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 31.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 44.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 20 openings · below min 30 days · 20 openings · below min since tracking started · 20 openings · below min 20.5% 84.0% 147.5% **Small sample.** 20 openings and 6.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bayonets?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bayonets?window=7d) | 20 | 83.83% ±62.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bayonets) | 20 | 83.83% ±62.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bayonets?window=all) | 20 | 83.83% ±62.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 100 | $2,844 5,688 coins | 12.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,858 3,716 coins | 8.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 100 | $901 1,803 coins | 4.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $677 1,353 coins | 3.0% | 2 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 100 | $636 1,272 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $540 1,081 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-field-tested) | 25.0% | $311 623 coins | 34.9% | 7 | 5.0 | 1.40× | | [★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 25.0% | $259 519 coins | 29.1% | 2 | 5.0 | 0.40× | | [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 11.0% | $22.31 44.61 coins | 1.1% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.36× | | [P2000 \| Dispatch (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-dispatch-factory-new) | 11.0% | $14.02 28.04 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× | | [P2000 \| Pathfinder (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pathfinder-factory-new) | 11.0% | $11.65 23.3 coins | 0.6% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× | | [P2000 \| Coach Class (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coach-class-field-tested) | 11.0% | $5.03 10.05 coins | 0.2% | 5 | 2.2 | 2.27× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $248 496 coins $677 1,353 coins 2.73x 2026-11-05 15:56 UTC [★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $248 496 coins $677 1,353 coins 2.73x 2026-11-05 15:54 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=bayonets) [★ Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-safari-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $248 496 coins $259 519 coins 1.05x 2026-11-08 13:03 UTC [P2000 | Coach Class (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coach-class-field-tested) Hidden $248 496 coins $5.03 10.05 coins 0.02x 2026-11-08 13:03 UTC [P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) Hidden $248 496 coins $22.31 44.61 coins 0.09x 2026-11-08 13:03 UTC [P2000 | Coach Class (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coach-class-field-tested) [fordtransit](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/fordtransit) $248 496 coins $5.03 10.05 coins 0.02x 2026-11-08 13:03 UTC [★ Bayonet | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-field-tested) Hidden $248 496 coins $311 623 coins 1.26x 2026-11-05 15:56 UTC [★ Bayonet | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-field-tested) Hidden $248 496 coins $311 623 coins 1.26x 2026-11-05 15:56 UTC [★ Bayonet | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-field-tested) Hidden $248 496 coins $311 623 coins 1.26x 2026-11-05 15:56 UTC [P2000 | Coach Class (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coach-class-field-tested) Hidden $248 496 coins $5.03 10.05 coins 0.02x 2026-11-05 15:56 UTC [P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) [Merleben](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Merleben) $248 496 coins $22.31 44.61 coins 0.09x 2026-11-05 15:56 UTC [★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $248 496 coins $677 1,353 coins 2.73x 2026-11-05 15:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $248 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 40.0% Covert 1.0% epic 1.0% knifes 25.0% Rare 11.0% industrial 11.0% Uncommon 11.0% best hit $677 (2.73x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt