--- title: "BCX case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "BCX ($13.88) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.97% from 9 items with odds, observed 89.01% over 35.4K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bcx rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [BCX](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bcx) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · BCX A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bcx?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bcx?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bcx) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bcx?window=all) Price · $13.88 · 27.76 coins Advertised RTP · 89.97% · EV $12.49 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.01% · 35.4K openings, odds method Variance · 97.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 167 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 97.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 97.18% ±37.45 2,656 openings 7 days · 87.65% ±11.14 30K openings 30 days · 89.01% ±10.25 35.4K openings since tracking started · 89.01% ±10.25 35.4K openings 59.0% 97.2% 135.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bcx?window=24h) | 2,656 | 97.18% ±37.4 | +0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bcx?window=7d) | 30K | 87.65% ±11.1 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bcx) | 35.4K | 89.01% ±10.3 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bcx?window=all) | 35.4K | 89.01% ±10.3 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 35.5K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $8,079 16,159 coins | 6.5% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.85× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 3,333 | $3,644 7,288 coins | 8.8% | 9 | 10.6 | 0.85× | | [Negev \| Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $1,598 3,196 coins | 7.7% | 23 | 21.3 | 1.08× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,548 3,095 coins | 24.8% | 77 | 71.0 | 1.09× | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $595 1,191 coins | 14.3% | 96 | 106.4 | 0.90× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $214 427 coins | 6.8% | 131 | 141.9 | 0.92× | | [AUG \| Flame Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-flame-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $210 420 coins | 16.8% | 346 | 354.8 | 0.98× | | [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $177 354 coins | 14.2% | 377 | 354.8 | 1.06× | | [G3SG1 \| Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-field-tested) | 97.0% | $0.02 0.04 coins | 0.2% | 34,414 | 34411.7 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $13.88 27.76 coins $8,079 16,159 coins 582.1x 2026-11-09 20:58 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [spejsat](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/spejsat) $13.88 27.76 coins $8,079 16,159 coins 582.1x 2026-11-06 00:12 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $13.88 27.76 coins $8,079 16,159 coins 582.1x 2026-11-04 21:55 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $13.88 27.76 coins $3,644 7,288 coins 262.5x 2026-11-09 16:32 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $13.88 27.76 coins $3,644 7,288 coins 262.5x 2026-11-08 20:03 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $13.88 27.76 coins $3,644 7,288 coins 262.5x 2026-11-07 23:46 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [fredric89](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/fredric89) $13.88 27.76 coins $3,644 7,288 coins 262.5x 2026-11-07 19:07 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $13.88 27.76 coins $3,644 7,288 coins 262.5x 2026-11-05 03:29 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $13.88 27.76 coins $3,644 7,288 coins 262.5x 2026-11-05 00:33 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $13.88 27.76 coins $3,644 7,288 coins 262.5x 2026-11-04 02:59 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=bcx) [G3SG1 | Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-field-tested) Hidden $13.88 27.76 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [G3SG1 | Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-field-tested) Hidden $13.88 27.76 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [G3SG1 | Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-field-tested) Hidden $13.88 27.76 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [G3SG1 | Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-field-tested) Hidden $13.88 27.76 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [G3SG1 | Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-field-tested) Hidden $13.88 27.76 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [G3SG1 | Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-field-tested) [return](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/return) $13.88 27.76 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [G3SG1 | Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-field-tested) Hidden $13.88 27.76 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [G3SG1 | Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-field-tested) Hidden $13.88 27.76 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [G3SG1 | Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-field-tested) Hidden $13.88 27.76 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [G3SG1 | Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-field-tested) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $13.88 27.76 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $13.88 | 89.97% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% classified 1.4% extraordinary 0.6% restricted 1.0% blue 97.0% best hit $8,079 (582.1x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.97 on average: an expected loss of $10.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt