--- title: "BIG AWP case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "BIG AWP ($4,904.04) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-awp rendered: 2026-11-11T18:20Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [BIG AWP](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-awp) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · BIG AWP A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-awp?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-awp?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-awp) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-awp?window=all) Price · $4,904.04 · 9,808 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $4,413.63 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 4.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 17.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 71.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-awp?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-awp?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-awp) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-awp?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $217K 434,217 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $112K 223,312 coins | 12.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $41.2K 82,490 coins | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $26.7K 53,347 coins | 12.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $24.8K 49,625 coins | 11.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 12.0% | $9,355 18,710 coins | 25.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 12.0% | $9,318 18,637 coins | 25.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $3,086 6,171 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $2,792 5,584 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| BOOM (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $259 519 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $94.25 189 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $79.87 160 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $76.94 154 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Pit Viper (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pit-viper-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $75.06 150 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Corticera (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-corticera-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $69.92 140 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $67.97 136 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=big-awp) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4,904 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 47.7% classified 17.4% other 8.7% restricted 8.7% Industrial Grade 8.7% Restricted 8.7% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt