--- title: "Big Bag case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Big Bag ($492.31) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 68.87% over 650 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-bag rendered: 2026-11-11T13:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Big Bag](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-bag) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Big Bag A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-bag?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-bag?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-bag) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-bag?window=all) Price · $492.31 · 985 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $443.08 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 68.87% · 650 openings, odds method Variance · 32.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 143 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 70 openings · below min 7 days · 634 openings · below min 30 days · 650 openings · below min since tracking started · 650 openings · below min -0.5% 81.8% 164.0% **Small sample.** 650 openings and 4.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-bag?window=24h) | 70 | 30.27% ±133.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-bag?window=7d) | 634 | 70.36% ±44.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-bag) | 650 | 68.87% ±43.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-bag?window=all) | 650 | 68.87% ±43.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 650 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $41.2K 82,490 coins | 9.3% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $36.5K 72,902 coins | 8.2% | 2 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $36.3K 72,651 coins | 8.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $31.6K 63,128 coins | 7.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $26.7K 53,347 coins | 6.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $25.5K 51,019 coins | 5.8% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $24.8K 49,625 coins | 5.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $18.7K 37,392 coins | 4.2% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $15.1K 30,112 coins | 3.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 10.0% | $770 1,541 coins | 17.4% | 76 | 65.0 | 1.17× | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 10.0% | $701 1,401 coins | 15.8% | 64 | 65.0 | 0.98× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) | 79.1% | $50.13 100 coins | 8.9% | 507 | 514.1 | 0.99× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $492 985 coins $36.5K 72,902 coins 74.04x 2026-11-07 10:20 UTC [Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $492 985 coins $36.5K 72,902 coins 74.04x 2026-11-06 22:53 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) Hidden $492 985 coins $18.7K 37,392 coins 37.98x 2026-11-06 08:23 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $492 985 coins $770 1,541 coins 1.56x 2026-11-11 06:43 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $492 985 coins $770 1,541 coins 1.56x 2026-11-11 06:43 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $492 985 coins $770 1,541 coins 1.56x 2026-11-11 06:43 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $492 985 coins $770 1,541 coins 1.56x 2026-11-10 23:35 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $492 985 coins $770 1,541 coins 1.56x 2026-11-10 23:33 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $492 985 coins $770 1,541 coins 1.56x 2026-11-10 23:33 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $492 985 coins $770 1,541 coins 1.56x 2026-11-09 17:19 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=big-bag) [Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) Hidden $492 985 coins $50.13 100 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) Hidden $492 985 coins $50.13 100 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) Hidden $492 985 coins $50.13 100 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $492 985 coins $701 1,401 coins 1.42x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) Hidden $492 985 coins $50.13 100 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) Hidden $492 985 coins $50.13 100 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) Hidden $492 985 coins $50.13 100 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $492 985 coins $50.13 100 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) Hidden $492 985 coins $50.13 100 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 06:45 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) Hidden $492 985 coins $50.13 100 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 06:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $492 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 20.3% legendary 0.2% remarkable 0.2% extraordinary 0.2% Industrial Grade 79.1% best hit $36.5K (74.04x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt