--- title: "Big Dog case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Big Dog ($2,411.99) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 102.29% over 16 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-dog rendered: 2026-11-11T13:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Big Dog](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-dog) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Big Dog A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-dog?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-dog?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-dog) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-dog?window=all) Price · $2,411.99 · 4,824 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $2,170.78 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 102.29% · 16 openings, odds method Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 53.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 46.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 16 openings · below min 30 days · 16 openings · below min since tracking started · 16 openings · below min 51.5% 102.3% 153.0% **Small sample.** 16 openings and 8.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-dog?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-dog?window=7d) | 16 | 102.29% ±50.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-dog) | 16 | 102.29% ±50.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-dog?window=all) | 16 | 102.29% ±50.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $112K 223,312 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $36.3K 72,651 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $18.7K 37,392 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $11.7K 23,410 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $8,979 17,957 coins | 1.0% | 1 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $8,338 16,675 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $7,137 14,274 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $7,082 14,163 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 400 | $6,892 13,784 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 400 | $6,562 13,124 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $6,389 12,778 coins | 0.7% | 1 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 400 | $6,322 12,643 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 51.0% | $3,377 6,753 coins | 79.3% | 7 | 8.2 | 0.86× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1,672 3,343 coins | 7.7% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-nuclear-threat-battle-scarred) | 17.0% | $68.89 138 coins | 0.5% | 6 | 2.7 | 2.21× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 19.4% | $58.94 118 coins | 0.5% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.32× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-factory-new) Hidden $2,412 4,824 coins $8,979 17,957 coins 3.72x 2026-11-06 00:45 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) Hidden $2,412 4,824 coins $6,389 12,778 coins 2.65x 2026-11-06 00:45 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $2,412 4,824 coins $3,377 6,753 coins 1.40x 2026-11-06 00:45 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $2,412 4,824 coins $3,377 6,753 coins 1.40x 2026-11-06 00:45 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $2,412 4,824 coins $3,377 6,753 coins 1.40x 2026-11-06 00:45 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $2,412 4,824 coins $3,377 6,753 coins 1.40x 2026-11-06 00:45 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $2,412 4,824 coins $3,377 6,753 coins 1.40x 2026-11-06 00:45 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $2,412 4,824 coins $3,377 6,753 coins 1.40x 2026-11-06 00:45 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $2,412 4,824 coins $3,377 6,753 coins 1.40x 2026-11-06 00:45 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=big-dog) [Souvenir Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-nuclear-threat-battle-scarred) Hidden $2,412 4,824 coins $68.89 138 coins 0.03x 2026-11-06 00:45 UTC [Souvenir Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-nuclear-threat-battle-scarred) Hidden $2,412 4,824 coins $68.89 138 coins 0.03x 2026-11-06 00:45 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $2,412 4,824 coins $3,377 6,753 coins 1.40x 2026-11-06 00:45 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $2,412 4,824 coins $3,377 6,753 coins 1.40x 2026-11-06 00:45 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $2,412 4,824 coins $3,377 6,753 coins 1.40x 2026-11-06 00:45 UTC [Souvenir Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-nuclear-threat-battle-scarred) Hidden $2,412 4,824 coins $68.89 138 coins 0.03x 2026-11-06 00:45 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) Hidden $2,412 4,824 coins $58.94 118 coins 0.02x 2026-11-06 00:45 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $2,412 4,824 coins $3,377 6,753 coins 1.40x 2026-11-06 00:45 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $2,412 4,824 coins $3,377 6,753 coins 1.40x 2026-11-06 00:45 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) Hidden $2,412 4,824 coins $6,389 12,778 coins 2.65x 2026-11-06 00:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2,412 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 52.0% legendary 0.4% extraordinary 1.2% Immortal 10.0% Restricted 17.0% industrial 19.4% best hit $8,979 (3.72x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt