--- title: "Big Glock case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Big Glock ($5.12) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.95% from 33 items with odds, observed 89.25% over 15K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-glock rendered: 2026-11-11T13:44Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Big Glock](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-glock) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Big Glock A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-glock?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-glock?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-glock) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-glock?window=all) Price · $5.12 · 10.23 coins Advertised RTP · 89.95% · EV $4.60 from 33 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.25% · 15K openings, odds method Variance · 18.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 73.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 86.97% ±41.50 415 openings 7 days · 84.80% ±8.63 9,605 openings 30 days · 89.25% ±6.90 15K openings since tracking started · 89.25% ±6.90 15K openings 45.0% 87.0% 129.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-glock?window=24h) | 415 | 86.97% ±41.5 | −0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-glock?window=7d) | 9,605 | 84.80% ±8.63 | −1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-glock) | 15K | 89.25% ±6.90 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/big-glock?window=all) | 15K | 89.25% ±6.90 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,182 2,363 coins | 5.1% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 5,000 | $466 933 coins | 2.0% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $424 849 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $212 425 coins | 0.9% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $165 329 coins | 1.8% | 7 | 7.5 | 0.93× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $159 318 coins | 1.7% | 8 | 7.5 | 1.06× | | [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $151 302 coins | 1.6% | 9 | 7.5 | 1.20× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $131 262 coins | 1.4% | 10 | 7.5 | 1.33× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $119 238 coins | 1.3% | 11 | 7.5 | 1.46× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Reactor (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-reactor-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $95.08 190 coins | 1.0% | 4 | 7.5 | 0.53× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-candy-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $85.61 171 coins | 0.9% | 10 | 7.5 | 1.33× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $72.33 145 coins | 1.6% | 11 | 15.0 | 0.73× | | [Glock-18 \| Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sand-dune-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $62.66 125 coins | 1.4% | 13 | 15.0 | 0.87× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-snack-attack-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $61.31 123 coins | 1.3% | 12 | 15.0 | 0.80× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $60.28 121 coins | 1.3% | 14 | 15.0 | 0.93× | | [Glock-18 \| Brass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $59.39 119 coins | 1.3% | 15 | 15.0 | 1.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $59.03 118 coins | 1.3% | 16 | 15.0 | 1.06× | | [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $56.28 113 coins | 1.2% | 27 | 15.0 | 1.80× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $54.10 108 coins | 1.2% | 14 | 15.0 | 0.93× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) weapon · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 1,000 | $52.17 104 coins | 1.1% | 13 | 15.0 | 0.87× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $50.13 100 coins | 1.1% | 13 | 15.0 | 0.87× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $44.66 89.32 coins | 7.8% | 121 | 120.2 | 1.01× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) weapon · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 125 | $44.59 89.17 coins | 7.8% | 126 | 120.2 | 1.05× | | [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $5.95 11.9 coins | 10.3% | 1,139 | 1202.2 | 0.95× | | [Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $5.95 11.89 coins | 10.3% | 1,209 | 1202.2 | 1.01× | | [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $5.21 10.42 coins | 9.1% | 1,190 | 1202.2 | 0.99× | | [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $4.53 9.06 coins | 7.9% | 1,221 | 1202.2 | 1.02× | | [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $4.07 8.13 coins | 7.1% | 1,220 | 1202.2 | 1.01× | | [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $4.00 8 coins | 7.0% | 1,216 | 1202.2 | 1.01× | | [Glock-18 \| Off World (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-off-world-field-tested) | 12.0% | $0.06 0.11 coins | 0.1% | 1,786 | 1803.4 | 0.99× | | [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-field-tested) | 12.0% | $0.04 0.07 coins | 0.1% | 1,892 | 1803.4 | 1.05× | | [Glock-18 \| Winterized (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-field-tested) | 12.0% | $0.01 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 1,781 | 1803.4 | 0.99× | | [Glock-18 \| Death Rattle (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-death-rattle-field-tested) | 13.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 1,911 | 1949.1 | 0.98× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $5.12 10.23 coins $1,182 2,363 coins 231.0x 2026-11-04 22:02 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $5.12 10.23 coins $1,182 2,363 coins 231.0x 2026-11-03 23:23 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $5.12 10.23 coins $1,182 2,363 coins 231.0x 2026-11-03 00:21 UTC [Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $5.12 10.23 coins $466 933 coins 91.19x 2026-11-04 18:32 UTC [Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $5.12 10.23 coins $466 933 coins 91.19x 2026-11-03 15:19 UTC [Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $5.12 10.23 coins $466 933 coins 91.19x 2026-11-03 00:12 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=big-glock) [Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $5.12 10.23 coins $4.00 8 coins 0.78x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) Hidden $5.12 10.23 coins $4.53 9.06 coins 0.89x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Glock-18 | Death Rattle (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-death-rattle-field-tested) Hidden $5.12 10.23 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Glock-18 | Off World (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-off-world-field-tested) Hidden $5.12 10.23 coins $0.06 0.11 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-field-tested) Hidden $5.12 10.23 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-field-tested) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $5.12 10.23 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Glock-18 | Off World (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-off-world-field-tested) Hidden $5.12 10.23 coins $0.06 0.11 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:27 UTC [Glock-18 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $5.12 10.23 coins $5.95 11.89 coins 1.16x 2026-11-11 11:27 UTC [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-field-tested) [Cupcake](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Cupcake) $5.12 10.23 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:27 UTC [Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) Hidden $5.12 10.23 coins $5.21 10.42 coins 1.02x 2026-11-11 11:27 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.12 | 89.95% | 33 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 16.6% red 0.8% mil spec 12.2% covert 17.0% classified 0.1% industrial 21.1% Mil Spec Grade 0.1% Industrial Grade 0.1% Legendary 8.0% #4b69ff 12.0% Rare 12.0% best hit $1,182 (231.0x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.95 on average: an expected loss of $10.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt