---
title: "Binge Water case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Binge Water ($33.07) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 16 items with odds, observed 71.81% over 328 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/binge-water
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:53Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Binge Water](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/binge-water)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Binge Water

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/binge-water?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/binge-water?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/binge-water) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/binge-water?window=all)

Price · $33.07 · 66.13 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $29.76 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 71.81% · 328 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 81.52% ±39.02 200 openings

7 days · 75.38% ±32.08 296 openings

30 days · 71.81% ±30.47 328 openings

since tracking started · 71.81% ±30.47 328 openings

40.5% 80.8% 121.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/binge-water?window=24h) | 200 | 81.52% ±39.0 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/binge-water?window=7d) | 296 | 75.38% ±32.1 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/binge-water) | 328 | 71.81% ±30.5 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/binge-water?window=all) | 328 | 71.81% ±30.5 | −1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 328 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $743 1,487 coins | 25.0% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $492 984 coins | 16.5% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.91× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $259 519 coins | 8.7% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $176 352 coins | 5.9% | 0 | 3.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $111 222 coins | 3.7% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.22× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $108 216 coins | 3.6% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.30× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $101 203 coins | 3.4% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.91× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $87.89 176 coins | 3.0% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $47.35 94.7 coins | 3.2% | 6 | 6.6 | 0.91× |
| [Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $40.01 80.02 coins | 6.7% | 24 | 16.4 | 1.46× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $18.27 36.53 coins | 7.4% | 39 | 39.4 | 0.99× |
| [MP7 \| Groundwater (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-groundwater-factory-new) | 14.0% | $13.66 27.32 coins | 6.4% | 44 | 45.9 | 0.96× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 16.0% | $8.20 16.4 coins | 4.4% | 65 | 52.5 | 1.24× |
| [MAG-7 \| Hard Water (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hard-water-factory-new) | 16.0% | $2.61 5.22 coins | 1.4% | 45 | 52.5 | 0.86× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Water Sigil (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-water-sigil-factory-new) | 15.0% | $1.18 2.35 coins | 0.6% | 54 | 49.2 | 1.10× |
| [Tec-9 \| Groundwater (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-factory-new) | 12.0% | $0.09 0.18 coins | 0.0% | 34 | 39.4 | 0.86× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $33.07 66.13 coins $743 1,487 coins 22.48x 2026-11-11 14:31 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $33.07 66.13 coins $743 1,487 coins 22.48x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=binge-water)

[Tec-9 | Groundwater (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-factory-new) Hidden $33.07 66.13 coins $0.09 0.18 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC

[M4A1-S | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $33.07 66.13 coins $18.27 36.53 coins 0.55x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC

[Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) Hidden $33.07 66.13 coins $8.20 16.4 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC

[Tec-9 | Groundwater (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-factory-new) Hidden $33.07 66.13 coins $0.09 0.18 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-water-sigil-factory-new) Hidden $33.07 66.13 coins $1.18 2.35 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC

[MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hard-water-factory-new) Hidden $33.07 66.13 coins $2.61 5.22 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-water-sigil-factory-new) Hidden $33.07 66.13 coins $1.18 2.35 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-water-sigil-factory-new) [Ravtok](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Ravtok) $33.07 66.13 coins $1.18 2.35 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC

[Tec-9 | Groundwater (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-factory-new) Hidden $33.07 66.13 coins $0.09 0.18 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC

[MP7 | Groundwater (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-groundwater-factory-new) Hidden $33.07 66.13 coins $13.66 27.32 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $33.07 | 89.99% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 9.0% covert knife 1.0% industrial 5.0% restricted 12.0% consumer 26.0% classified 16.0% mil spec 31.0% best hit $743 (22.48x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt