--- title: "Black Diamond case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Black Diamond ($267.02) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 0.11% over 8 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-diamond rendered: 2026-11-11T18:17Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Black Diamond](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-diamond) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Black Diamond A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-diamond?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-diamond?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-diamond) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-diamond?window=all) Price · $267.02 · 534 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $240.32 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 0.11% · 8 openings, odds method Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 72.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 30 days · 8 openings · below min since tracking started · 8 openings · below min -0.5% 65.0% 130.5% **Small sample.** 8 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-diamond?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-diamond?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-diamond) | 8 | 0.11% ±129.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-diamond?window=all) | 8 | 0.11% ±129.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 303 | $6,321 12,641 coins | 8.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) | 1 in 113 | $2,112 4,224 coins | 7.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 81 | $1,581 3,162 coins | 8.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 65 | $1,258 2,517 coins | 8.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $734 1,467 coins | 8.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 38 | $713 1,427 coins | 7.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 38 | $708 1,416 coins | 7.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $608 1,215 coins | 7.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Rifles](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $470 940 coins | 7.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $422 844 coins | 7.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 20 | $406 812 coins | 8.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-black-laminate-factory-new) | 12.0% | $132 264 coins | 6.6% | 0 | 1.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) | 12.0% | $115 230 coins | 5.7% | 0 | 1.0 | — | | [Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $10.34 20.68 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $3.41 6.82 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Galil AR \| Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-factory-new) | 42.0% | $0.29 0.59 coins | 0.1% | 8 | 3.4 | 2.38× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=black-diamond) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $267 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 9.8% extraordinary 0.9% gold 5.7% Covert 7.7% Rifles 4.0% covert knife 12.0% mil spec 57.0% blue 3.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. 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