--- title: "BLACK MARKET 1% case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "BLACK MARKET 1% ($3.89) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 86.98% over 312 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-market-1 rendered: 2026-11-12T04:10Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [BLACK MARKET 1%](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-market-1) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · BLACK MARKET 1% A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 11 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-market-1?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-market-1?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-market-1) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-market-1?window=all) Price · $3.89 · 7.77 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 86.98% · 312 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 312 openings · below min 7 days · 312 openings · below min 30 days · 312 openings · below min since tracking started · 312 openings · below min -0.5% 94.0% 188.5% **Small sample.** 312 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-market-1?window=24h) | 312 | 86.98% ±101.0 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-market-1?window=7d) | 312 | 86.98% ±101.0 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-market-1) | 312 | 86.98% ±101.0 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-market-1?window=all) | 312 | 86.98% ±101.0 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Chicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-field-tested) Hidden $3.89 7.77 coins $608 1,215 coins 156.4x 2026-11-11 12:02 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=black-market-1) [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $3.89 7.77 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:03 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $3.89 7.77 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:03 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 7.77 coins $0.17 0.33 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:03 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $3.89 7.77 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:03 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-field-tested) Hidden $3.89 7.77 coins $62.13 124 coins 15.99x 2026-11-11 12:03 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) [nigxoo](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/nigxoo) $3.89 7.77 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:03 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $3.89 7.77 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:03 UTC [USP-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $3.89 7.77 coins $0.49 0.98 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:03 UTC [Galil AR | Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 7.77 coins $0.29 0.59 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:03 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 7.77 coins $0.17 0.33 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:03 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $608 (156.4x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.98 on average: an expected loss of $13.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt