--- title: "Black Ops case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Black Ops ($19.61) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 13 items with odds, observed 71.66% over 724 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-ops rendered: 2026-11-11T13:38Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Black Ops](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-ops) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Black Ops A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-ops?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-ops?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-ops) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-ops?window=all) Price · $19.61 · 39.21 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $17.64 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 71.66% · 724 openings, odds method Variance · 34.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 47 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 31 openings · below min 7 days · 72.50% ±50.39 520 openings 30 days · 71.66% ±42.70 724 openings since tracking started · 71.66% ±42.70 724 openings -0.5% 103.3% 207.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-ops?window=24h) | 31 | 0.03% ±206.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-ops?window=7d) | 520 | 72.50% ±50.4 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-ops) | 724 | 71.66% ±42.7 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-ops?window=all) | 724 | 71.66% ±42.7 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 724 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 10,000 | $6,327 12,654 coins | 3.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $2,112 4,224 coins | 4.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,814 3,629 coins | 5.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,250 | $1,258 2,517 coins | 5.7% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $943 1,886 coins | 5.3% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 303 | $630 1,260 coins | 11.8% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.84× | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $406 812 coins | 11.5% | 6 | 3.6 | 1.66× | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $239 478 coins | 13.5% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.10× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $228 456 coins | 12.9% | 3 | 7.2 | 0.41× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $180 360 coins | 10.2% | 4 | 7.2 | 0.55× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $162 323 coins | 9.2% | 9 | 7.2 | 1.24× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $111 222 coins | 6.3% | 4 | 7.2 | 0.55× | | [MP9 \| Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) | 93.9% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 687 | 679.8 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $19.61 39.21 coins $1,258 2,517 coins 64.18x 2026-11-08 00:39 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $19.61 39.21 coins $630 1,260 coins 32.12x 2026-11-04 06:29 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $19.61 39.21 coins $630 1,260 coins 32.12x 2026-11-04 00:48 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=black-ops) [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $19.61 39.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $19.61 39.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $19.61 39.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $19.61 39.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $19.61 39.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) [return](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/return) $19.61 39.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $19.61 39.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:00 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $19.61 39.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:00 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $19.61 39.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:00 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $19.61 39.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:00 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $19.61 | 89.99% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #EB4B4B 0.0% extraordinary 1.0% Covert 0.5% covert 0.5% covert knife 1.0% sunny 3.0% milspec 93.9% best hit $1,258 (64.18x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt