---
title: "Black Pearl 1200x case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Black Pearl 1200x ($4.83) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.91% from 16 items with odds, observed 77.55% over 4,376 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-pearl-1200x
rendered: 2026-11-12T08:36Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Black Pearl 1200x](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-pearl-1200x)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Black Pearl 1200x

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-pearl-1200x?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-pearl-1200x?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-pearl-1200x) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-pearl-1200x?window=all)

Price · $4.83 · 9.65 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.91% · EV $4.34 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 77.55% · 4,376 openings, odds method

Variance · 178.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 38 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 67.43% ±75.62 1,200 openings

7 days · 74.92% ±46.20 3,216 openings

30 days · 77.55% ±39.60 4,376 openings

since tracking started · 77.55% ±39.60 4,376 openings

-0.5% 71.5% 143.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-pearl-1200x?window=24h) | 1,200 | 67.43% ±75.6 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-pearl-1200x?window=7d) | 3,216 | 74.92% ±46.2 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-pearl-1200x) | 4,376 | 77.55% ±39.6 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-pearl-1200x?window=all) | 4,376 | 77.55% ±39.6 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,376 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,754 11,508 coins | 13.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,252 2,504 coins | 14.4% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $250 500 coins | 2.9% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.91× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $50.22 100 coins | 5.8% | 24 | 21.9 | 1.10× |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $37.64 75.28 coins | 4.3% | 25 | 21.9 | 1.14× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $34.57 69.13 coins | 4.0% | 23 | 21.9 | 1.05× |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $34.03 68.06 coins | 3.9% | 23 | 21.9 | 1.05× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $33.19 66.38 coins | 3.8% | 18 | 21.9 | 0.82× |
| [SSG 08 \| Tropical Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-tropical-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $26.46 52.92 coins | 3.0% | 21 | 21.9 | 0.96× |
| [M4A4 \| Modern Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $25.41 50.82 coins | 2.9% | 21 | 21.9 | 0.96× |
| [XM1014 \| Entombed (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-factory-new) | 16.0% | $5.12 10.24 coins | 18.9% | 724 | 700.2 | 1.03× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) | 16.0% | $5.04 10.08 coins | 18.6% | 694 | 700.2 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 16.0% | $0.56 1.11 coins | 2.0% | 653 | 700.2 | 0.93× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-field-tested) | 16.0% | $0.55 1.09 coins | 2.0% | 700 | 700.2 | 1.00× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Sand Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-factory-new) | 16.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 717 | 700.2 | 1.02× |
| [AUG \| Sweeper (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sweeper-factory-new) | 16.4% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 729 | 717.2 | 1.02× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 12 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $4.83 9.65 coins $1,252 2,504 coins 259.5x 2026-11-07 21:07 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $4.83 9.65 coins $1,252 2,504 coins 259.5x 2026-11-03 08:47 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) Hidden $4.83 9.65 coins $250 500 coins 51.85x 2026-11-10 18:09 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) Hidden $4.83 9.65 coins $250 500 coins 51.85x 2026-11-09 19:57 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=black-pearl-1200x)

[AUG | Sweeper (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sweeper-factory-new) Hidden $4.83 9.65 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 08:31 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) Hidden $4.83 9.65 coins $5.04 10.08 coins 1.04x 2026-11-12 08:31 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-field-tested) Hidden $4.83 9.65 coins $0.55 1.09 coins 0.11x 2026-11-12 08:31 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $4.83 9.65 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 08:31 UTC

[AUG | Sweeper (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sweeper-factory-new) Hidden $4.83 9.65 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 08:31 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-field-tested) Hidden $4.83 9.65 coins $0.55 1.09 coins 0.11x 2026-11-12 08:31 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) Hidden $4.83 9.65 coins $5.04 10.08 coins 1.04x 2026-11-12 08:31 UTC

[USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-factory-new) [Andraz008](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Andraz008) $4.83 9.65 coins $34.57 69.13 coins 7.16x 2026-11-12 08:31 UTC

[AUG | Sweeper (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sweeper-factory-new) Hidden $4.83 9.65 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 08:31 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-field-tested) Hidden $4.83 9.65 coins $0.55 1.09 coins 0.11x 2026-11-12 08:31 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.83 | 89.91% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.1% extraordinary 0.5% Ancient 0.5% classified 0.5% industrial 0.5% restricted 32.5% Legendary 16.0% Rare 16.0% consumer 16.0% Common 16.4% best hit $1,252 (259.5x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.91 on average: an expected loss of $10.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt