--- title: "Black Pearl case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Black Pearl ($285.79) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 38.05% over 30 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-pearl rendered: 2026-11-11T20:12Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-pearl) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Black Pearl A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-pearl?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-pearl?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-pearl) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-pearl?window=all) Price · $285.79 · 572 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $257.21 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 38.05% · 30 openings, odds method Variance · 5.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 83.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 30 openings · below min 30 days · 30 openings · below min since tracking started · 30 openings · below min -0.5% 62.0% 124.5% **Small sample.** 30 openings and 1.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-pearl?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-pearl?window=7d) | 30 | 38.05% ±85.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-pearl) | 30 | 38.05% ±85.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-pearl?window=all) | 30 | 38.05% ±85.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,000 | $6,322 12,643 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,000 | $6,321 12,641 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · Knives · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 333 | $5,893 11,786 coins | 6.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 100 | $2,934 5,868 coins | 11.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 67 | $1,853 3,705 coins | 10.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 67 | $1,834 3,667 coins | 10.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 67 | $1,814 3,629 coins | 10.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 67 | $1,581 3,162 coins | 9.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 67 | $1,365 2,729 coins | 8.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 50 | $1,050 2,099 coins | 8.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 50 | $735 1,470 coins | 5.7% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 50 | $713 1,427 coins | 5.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 50 | $406 812 coins | 3.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Knives](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $233 465 coins | 3.6% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $62.13 124 coins | 1.2% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× | | [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 74.0% | $0.49 0.98 coins | 0.1% | 25 | 22.2 | 1.13× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $286 572 coins $1,814 3,629 coins 6.35x 2026-11-09 06:08 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $286 572 coins $735 1,470 coins 2.57x 2026-11-05 07:32 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=black-pearl) [USP-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $286 572 coins $0.49 0.98 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 06:08 UTC [USP-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $286 572 coins $0.49 0.98 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 06:08 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-field-tested) Hidden $286 572 coins $62.13 124 coins 0.22x 2026-11-09 06:08 UTC [USP-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $286 572 coins $0.49 0.98 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 06:08 UTC [USP-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $286 572 coins $0.49 0.98 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 06:08 UTC [USP-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $286 572 coins $0.49 0.98 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 06:08 UTC [USP-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $286 572 coins $0.49 0.98 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 06:08 UTC [USP-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) [BreeTheG](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BreeTheG) $286 572 coins $0.49 0.98 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 06:08 UTC [USP-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $286 572 coins $0.49 0.98 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 06:08 UTC [USP-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $286 572 coins $0.49 0.98 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 06:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $286 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 9.2% Knives 4.3% Covert 7.5% gold 5.0% mil spec 74.0% best hit $1,814 (6.35x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt