--- title: "Black Site case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Black Site ($15.35) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 5 items with odds, observed 63.42% over 1,293 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-site rendered: 2026-11-11T18:17Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Black Site](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-site) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Black Site A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-site?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-site?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-site) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-site?window=all) Price · $15.35 · 30.7 coins Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $13.81 from 5 items Observed RTP, 30d · 63.42% · 1,293 openings, odds method Variance · 37.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 87.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 92 openings · below min 7 days · 68.64% ±45.07 707 openings 30 days · 63.42% ±33.33 1,293 openings since tracking started · 63.42% ±33.33 1,293 openings -0.5% 76.8% 154.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-site?window=24h) | 92 | 28.48% ±124.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-site?window=7d) | 707 | 68.64% ±45.1 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-site) | 1,293 | 63.42% ±33.3 | −1.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/black-site?window=all) | 1,293 | 63.42% ±33.3 | −1.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,293 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $1,258 2,517 coins | 45.6% | 1 | 6.5 | 0.15× | | [Souvenir USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $250 500 coins | 27.2% | 23 | 19.4 | 1.19× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $50.13 100 coins | 14.5% | 60 | 51.7 | 1.16× | | [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $25.16 50.31 coins | 12.7% | 102 | 90.5 | 1.13× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 87.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 1,107 | 1124.9 | 0.98× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $15.35 30.7 coins $1,258 2,517 coins 81.98x 2026-11-08 19:25 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=black-site) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $15.35 30.7 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $15.35 30.7 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $15.35 30.7 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $15.35 30.7 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $15.35 30.7 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $15.35 30.7 coins $25.16 50.31 coins 1.64x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) Hidden $15.35 30.7 coins $50.13 100 coins 3.27x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $15.35 30.7 coins $25.16 50.31 coins 1.64x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $15.35 30.7 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $15.35 30.7 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.35 | 89.98% | 5 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.5% industrial 1.5% Industrial Grade 4.0% Rare 7.0% #4b69ff 87.0% best hit $1,258 (81.98x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt