---
title: "Blaze Fire case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Blaze Fire ($13.28) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.97% from 20 items with odds, observed 81.54% over 2,744 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/blaze-fire
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Blaze Fire](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/blaze-fire)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Blaze Fire

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/blaze-fire?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/blaze-fire?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/blaze-fire) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/blaze-fire?window=all)

Price · $13.28 · 26.56 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.97% · EV $11.95 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.54% · 2,744 openings, odds method

Variance · 12.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 65.79% ±34.06 398 openings

7 days · 81.08% ±14.19 2,294 openings

30 days · 81.54% ±12.97 2,744 openings

since tracking started · 81.54% ±12.97 2,744 openings

31.0% 65.8% 100.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/blaze-fire?window=24h) | 398 | 65.79% ±34.1 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/blaze-fire?window=7d) | 2,294 | 81.08% ±14.2 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/blaze-fire) | 2,744 | 81.54% ±13.0 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/blaze-fire?window=all) | 2,744 | 81.54% ±13.0 | −1.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,744 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $648 1,295 coins | 13.6% | 6 | 6.9 | 0.87× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $462 923 coins | 9.7% | 6 | 6.9 | 0.87× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $236 472 coins | 4.9% | 4 | 6.9 | 0.58× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $215 431 coins | 4.5% | 5 | 6.9 | 0.73× |
| [FAMAS \| Spitfire (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $127 254 coins | 2.7% | 3 | 6.9 | 0.44× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $117 235 coins | 2.5% | 5 | 6.9 | 0.73× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $113 226 coins | 2.4% | 7 | 6.9 | 1.02× |
| [Nova \| Blaze Orange (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-blaze-orange-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $96.18 192 coins | 2.0% | 6 | 6.9 | 0.87× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 15.0% | $44.42 88.83 coins | 55.8% | 406 | 411.6 | 0.99× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $1.29 2.57 coins | 0.9% | 199 | 219.5 | 0.91× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.74 1.49 coins | 0.5% | 224 | 219.5 | 1.02× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.26 0.52 coins | 0.2% | 230 | 219.5 | 1.05× |
| [MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.25 0.5 coins | 0.2% | 216 | 219.5 | 0.98× |
| [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.15 0.3 coins | 0.1% | 236 | 219.5 | 1.08× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.13 0.26 coins | 0.1% | 220 | 219.5 | 1.00× |
| [XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-oxide-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $0.13 0.26 coins | 0.1% | 195 | 192.1 | 1.02× |
| [Nova \| Wood Fired (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $0.12 0.23 coins | 0.1% | 182 | 192.1 | 0.95× |
| [Nova \| Wood Fired (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.04 0.08 coins | 0.0% | 198 | 192.1 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.04 0.07 coins | 0.0% | 208 | 192.1 | 1.08× |
| [XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-oxide-blaze-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.01 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 188 | 192.1 | 0.98× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) Hidden $13.28 26.56 coins $648 1,295 coins 48.78x 2026-11-10 12:56 UTC

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) Hidden $13.28 26.56 coins $648 1,295 coins 48.78x 2026-11-07 02:58 UTC

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) Hidden $13.28 26.56 coins $648 1,295 coins 48.78x 2026-11-05 19:36 UTC

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) Hidden $13.28 26.56 coins $648 1,295 coins 48.78x 2026-11-04 22:07 UTC

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) Hidden $13.28 26.56 coins $648 1,295 coins 48.78x 2026-11-04 21:02 UTC

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) Hidden $13.28 26.56 coins $648 1,295 coins 48.78x 2026-11-04 05:55 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=blaze-fire)

[Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-field-tested) Hidden $13.28 26.56 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:05 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $13.28 26.56 coins $0.74 1.49 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 11:05 UTC

[Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-factory-new) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $13.28 26.56 coins $0.15 0.3 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:05 UTC

[Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-factory-new) Hidden $13.28 26.56 coins $0.12 0.23 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 08:18 UTC

[M4A4 | Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) Hidden $13.28 26.56 coins $44.42 88.83 coins 3.34x 2026-11-11 08:18 UTC

[M4A4 | Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) Hidden $13.28 26.56 coins $44.42 88.83 coins 3.34x 2026-11-11 08:18 UTC

[MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-field-tested) Hidden $13.28 26.56 coins $0.25 0.5 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 08:18 UTC

[Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-field-tested) Hidden $13.28 26.56 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:18 UTC

[MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-field-tested) Hidden $13.28 26.56 coins $0.25 0.5 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 08:18 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $13.28 26.56 coins $0.74 1.49 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 08:18 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $13.28 | 89.97% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 8.0% covert 1.0% rare 0.3% restricted 8.3% classified 15.3% mil spec 51.2% blue 8.0% Rare 8.0% best hit $648 (48.78x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.97 on average: an expected loss of $10.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt