--- title: "Bloody Knife case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Bloody Knife ($114.67) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 88.58% over 110 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bloody-knife rendered: 2026-11-11T23:06Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Bloody Knife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bloody-knife) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Bloody Knife A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bloody-knife?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bloody-knife?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bloody-knife) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bloody-knife?window=all) Price · $114.67 · 229 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $103.20 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.58% · 110 openings, odds method Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 32.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 67.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 34 openings · below min 30 days · 88.58% ±17.62 110 openings since tracking started · 88.58% ±17.62 110 openings 58.0% 90.5% 123.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bloody-knife?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bloody-knife?window=7d) | 34 | 90.51% ±31.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bloody-knife) | 110 | 88.58% ±17.6 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bloody-knife?window=all) | 110 | 88.58% ±17.6 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 110 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,326 6,652 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 3,333 | $2,468 4,935 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,973 3,946 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,543 3,086 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,667 | $1,350 2,701 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $1,221 2,442 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,048 2,096 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 909 | $914 1,828 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $623 1,247 coins | 0.9% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 500 | $601 1,202 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $398 796 coins | 3.9% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.73× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $186 373 coins | 9.0% | 2 | 5.5 | 0.36× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $147 294 coins | 8.5% | 5 | 6.6 | 0.76× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $116 231 coins | 22.4% | 23 | 22.0 | 1.05× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 30.0% | $82.49 165 coins | 24.0% | 34 | 33.0 | 1.03× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 37.2% | $66.38 133 coins | 23.9% | 42 | 40.9 | 1.03× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $115 229 coins $623 1,247 coins 5.44x 2026-11-05 07:50 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=bloody-knife) [★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $115 229 coins $82.49 165 coins 0.72x 2026-11-06 09:46 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $115 229 coins $82.49 165 coins 0.72x 2026-11-06 09:46 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $115 229 coins $82.49 165 coins 0.72x 2026-11-06 09:46 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $115 229 coins $116 231 coins 1.01x 2026-11-06 09:46 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $115 229 coins $66.38 133 coins 0.58x 2026-11-06 09:45 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $115 229 coins $66.38 133 coins 0.58x 2026-11-06 09:45 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $115 229 coins $82.49 165 coins 0.72x 2026-11-06 09:45 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $115 229 coins $82.49 165 coins 0.72x 2026-11-06 09:45 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $115 229 coins $147 294 coins 1.28x 2026-11-06 09:45 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $115 229 coins $66.38 133 coins 0.58x 2026-11-06 09:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $115 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 99.7% #EB4B4B 0.1% legendary 0.1% knifes 0.1% best hit $623 (5.44x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt