---
title: "Blue Dream case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Blue Dream ($11.30) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.01% from 24 items with odds, observed 83.54% over 2,107 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/blue-dream
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:11Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Blue Dream](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/blue-dream)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Blue Dream

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/blue-dream?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/blue-dream?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/blue-dream) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/blue-dream?window=all)

Price · $11.30 · 22.59 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.01% · EV $10.17 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.54% · 2,107 openings, odds method

Variance · 29.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 87.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 100 openings · below min

7 days · 80.55% ±30.27 1,233 openings

30 days · 83.54% ±23.15 2,107 openings

since tracking started · 83.54% ±23.15 2,107 openings

0.5% 107.5% 214.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/blue-dream?window=24h) | 100 | 107.60% ±106.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/blue-dream?window=7d) | 1,233 | 80.55% ±30.3 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/blue-dream) | 2,107 | 83.54% ±23.2 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/blue-dream?window=all) | 2,107 | 83.54% ±23.2 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,119 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 100,000 | $9,356 18,711 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 25,000 | $3,746 7,492 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 20,000 | $3,377 6,753 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,415 4,830 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,764 3,528 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 5,000 | $835 1,669 coins | 1.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $468 936 coins | 4.6% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 667 | $451 903 coins | 6.7% | 6 | 3.2 | 1.89× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $107 214 coins | 6.3% | 12 | 12.7 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $95.48 191 coins | 5.6% | 8 | 12.7 | 0.63× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $60.28 121 coins | 5.9% | 24 | 21.2 | 1.13× |
| [Souvenir XM1014 \| Blue Steel (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $58.47 117 coins | 5.8% | 21 | 21.2 | 0.99× |
| [Souvenir XM1014 \| Blue Spruce (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-blue-spruce-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $56.39 113 coins | 5.5% | 15 | 21.2 | 0.71× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $39.94 79.87 coins | 3.9% | 22 | 21.2 | 1.04× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $24.16 48.32 coins | 5.9% | 50 | 53.0 | 0.94× |
| [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $11.64 23.28 coins | 5.7% | 109 | 106.0 | 1.03× |
| [XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-factory-new) | 10.0% | $10.74 21.48 coins | 10.6% | 209 | 211.9 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-factory-new) | 10.0% | $9.52 19.03 coins | 9.4% | 227 | 211.9 | 1.07× |
| [Tec-9 \| Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-titanium-factory-new) | 10.0% | $5.07 10.14 coins | 5.0% | 200 | 211.9 | 0.94× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) | 10.0% | $5.04 10.08 coins | 5.0% | 219 | 211.9 | 1.03× |
| [Galil AR \| Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-blue-titanium-factory-new) | 14.0% | $1.99 3.98 coins | 2.7% | 306 | 296.7 | 1.03× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-factory-new) | 13.0% | $0.70 1.41 coins | 0.9% | 277 | 275.5 | 1.01× |
| [XM1014 \| Blue Tire (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-tire-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.46 0.92 coins | 0.5% | 195 | 211.9 | 0.92× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-blueprint-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.21 0.42 coins | 0.2% | 218 | 211.9 | 1.03× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $11.30 22.59 coins $835 1,669 coins 73.90x 2026-11-04 08:56 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=blue-dream)

[PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) Hidden $11.30 22.59 coins $5.04 10.08 coins 0.45x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-blueprint-factory-new) Hidden $11.30 22.59 coins $0.21 0.42 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC

[AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $11.30 22.59 coins $9.52 19.03 coins 0.84x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC

[Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) Hidden $11.30 22.59 coins $11.64 23.28 coins 1.03x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC

[Galil AR | Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-blue-titanium-factory-new) Hidden $11.30 22.59 coins $1.99 3.98 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-factory-new) Hidden $11.30 22.59 coins $0.70 1.41 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC

[Galil AR | Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-blue-titanium-factory-new) Hidden $11.30 22.59 coins $1.99 3.98 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-blueprint-factory-new) [BG2x](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BG2x) $11.30 22.59 coins $0.21 0.42 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) Hidden $11.30 22.59 coins $60.28 121 coins 5.34x 2026-11-11 18:55 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-factory-new) Hidden $11.30 22.59 coins $0.70 1.41 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $11.30 | 90.01% | 24 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.9% mil spec 45.1% Mil Spec Grade 1.0% Industrial 1.0% consumer 1.0% industrial 1.0% Mythical 10.0% Mil Spec 10.0% restricted 10.0% gray 10.0% #4b69ff 10.0% best hit $835 (73.90x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.01 on average: an expected loss of $9.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt