--- title: "Blue Mist case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Blue Mist ($29.48) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 10 items with odds, observed 105.87% over 170 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/blue-mist rendered: 2026-11-11T17:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Blue Mist](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/blue-mist) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Blue Mist A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/blue-mist?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/blue-mist?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/blue-mist) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/blue-mist?window=all) Price · $29.48 · 58.96 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $26.53 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 105.87% · 170 openings, odds method Variance · 8.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 40 openings · below min 7 days · 85.08% ±51.76 126 openings 30 days · 105.87% ±44.56 170 openings since tracking started · 105.87% ±44.56 170 openings 32.5% 139.0% 245.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/blue-mist?window=24h) | 40 | 152.96% ±91.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/blue-mist?window=7d) | 126 | 85.08% ±51.8 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/blue-mist) | 170 | 105.87% ±44.6 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/blue-mist?window=all) | 170 | 105.87% ±44.6 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 170 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $703 1,405 coins | 26.5% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.76× | | [★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $371 743 coins | 21.0% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.18× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $175 350 coins | 13.2% | 1 | 3.4 | 0.29× | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $112 223 coins | 16.8% | 7 | 6.8 | 1.03× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $60.28 121 coins | 11.4% | 9 | 8.5 | 1.06× | | [USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $24.16 48.32 coins | 5.5% | 15 | 10.2 | 1.47× | | [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $7.63 15.26 coins | 2.6% | 10 | 15.3 | 0.65× | | [XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $6.22 12.44 coins | 2.1% | 16 | 15.3 | 1.05× | | [P90 \| Module (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-module-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $1.65 3.3 coins | 0.7% | 22 | 20.4 | 1.08× | | [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-field-tested) | 50.5% | $0.12 0.24 coins | 0.2% | 84 | 85.8 | 0.98× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) Hidden $29.48 58.96 coins $703 1,405 coins 23.84x 2026-11-11 02:25 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) Hidden $29.48 58.96 coins $703 1,405 coins 23.84x 2026-11-03 22:34 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) Hidden $29.48 58.96 coins $703 1,405 coins 23.84x 2026-11-03 22:34 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=blue-mist) [Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-field-tested) Hidden $29.48 58.96 coins $0.12 0.24 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:28 UTC [Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-field-tested) Hidden $29.48 58.96 coins $0.12 0.24 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:28 UTC [USP-S | Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) Hidden $29.48 58.96 coins $24.16 48.32 coins 0.82x 2026-11-11 02:28 UTC [AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.48 58.96 coins $7.63 15.26 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 02:28 UTC [AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.48 58.96 coins $7.63 15.26 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 02:28 UTC [AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.48 58.96 coins $7.63 15.26 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 02:28 UTC [Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-field-tested) Hidden $29.48 58.96 coins $0.12 0.24 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:28 UTC [Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-field-tested) Hidden $29.48 58.96 coins $0.12 0.24 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:28 UTC [Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-field-tested) Hidden $29.48 58.96 coins $0.12 0.24 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:27 UTC [Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-field-tested) Hidden $29.48 58.96 coins $0.12 0.24 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:27 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $29.48 | 89.99% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 8.5% Mil Spec Grade 5.0% mil spec 68.5% restricted 9.0% blue 9.0% best hit $703 (23.84x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt