--- title: "BOOM 400K case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "BOOM 400K ($39,868.17) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 93.22% over 388 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/boom-400k rendered: 2026-11-11T20:17Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [BOOM 400K](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/boom-400k) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · BOOM 400K A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/boom-400k?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/boom-400k?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/boom-400k) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/boom-400k?window=all) Price · $39,868.17 · 79,736 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $35,881.35 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.22% · 388 openings, odds method Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 93.22% ±17.24 388 openings 30 days · 93.22% ±17.24 388 openings since tracking started · 93.22% ±17.24 388 openings 75.5% 93.3% 111.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/boom-400k?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/boom-400k?window=7d) | 388 | 93.22% ±17.2 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/boom-400k) | 388 | 93.22% ±17.2 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/boom-400k?window=all) | 388 | 93.22% ±17.2 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 388 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 10.0% | $217K 434,217 coins | 60.5% | 41 | 38.8 | 1.06× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $112K 223,312 coins | 31.1% | 37 | 38.8 | 0.95× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $41.2K 82,490 coins | 4.6% | 23 | 15.5 | 1.48× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $24.8K 49,625 coins | 3.5% | 16 | 19.4 | 0.82× | | [AWP \| BOOM (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-factory-new) | 35.0% | $259 519 coins | 0.3% | 123 | 135.8 | 0.91× | | [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 36.0% | $65.87 132 coins | 0.1% | 148 | 139.7 | 1.06× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $39.9K 79,736 coins $217K 434,217 coins 5.45x 2026-11-09 05:52 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $39.9K 79,736 coins $217K 434,217 coins 5.45x 2026-11-07 10:24 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $39.9K 79,736 coins $217K 434,217 coins 5.45x 2026-11-07 10:23 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $39.9K 79,736 coins $217K 434,217 coins 5.45x 2026-11-07 10:23 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $39.9K 79,736 coins $217K 434,217 coins 5.45x 2026-11-07 03:17 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $39.9K 79,736 coins $217K 434,217 coins 5.45x 2026-11-07 03:17 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $39.9K 79,736 coins $217K 434,217 coins 5.45x 2026-11-07 03:17 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $39.9K 79,736 coins $217K 434,217 coins 5.45x 2026-11-07 03:17 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $39.9K 79,736 coins $217K 434,217 coins 5.45x 2026-11-07 03:17 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $39.9K 79,736 coins $217K 434,217 coins 5.45x 2026-11-07 03:17 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=boom-400k) [AWP | BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.9K 79,736 coins $65.87 132 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 05:52 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $39.9K 79,736 coins $24.8K 49,625 coins 0.62x 2026-11-09 05:52 UTC [AWP | BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.9K 79,736 coins $65.87 132 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 05:52 UTC [AWP | BOOM (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-factory-new) Hidden $39.9K 79,736 coins $259 519 coins 0.01x 2026-11-09 05:52 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $39.9K 79,736 coins $217K 434,217 coins 5.45x 2026-11-09 05:52 UTC [AWP | BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.9K 79,736 coins $65.87 132 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 05:52 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.9K 79,736 coins $112K 223,312 coins 2.80x 2026-11-09 05:52 UTC [AWP | BOOM (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-factory-new) [wannagambles](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/wannagambles) $39.9K 79,736 coins $259 519 coins 0.01x 2026-11-09 05:52 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.9K 79,736 coins $112K 223,312 coins 2.80x 2026-11-07 10:24 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $39.9K 79,736 coins $217K 434,217 coins 5.45x 2026-11-07 10:24 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $39.9K | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 29.0% classified 71.0% best hit $217K (5.45x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt