---
title: "BOOM HEADSHOT case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "BOOM HEADSHOT ($97.61) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 15 items with odds, observed 94.30% over 54 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/boom-headshot
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:00Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [BOOM HEADSHOT](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/boom-headshot)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · BOOM HEADSHOT

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/boom-headshot?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/boom-headshot?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/boom-headshot) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/boom-headshot?window=all)

Price · $97.61 · 195 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $87.85 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.30% · 54 openings, odds method

Variance · 6.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 46 openings · below min

30 days · 54 openings · below min

since tracking started · 54 openings · below min

26.5% 99.0% 171.5%

**Small sample.** 54 openings and 10.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/boom-headshot?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/boom-headshot?window=7d) | 46 | 99.06% ±71.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/boom-headshot) | 54 | 94.30% ±66.3 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/boom-headshot?window=all) | 54 | 94.30% ±66.3 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 54 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $4,916 9,833 coins | 5.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $1,788 3,577 coins | 14.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $1,015 2,029 coins | 11.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-boom-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $557 1,113 coins | 7.9% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $236 472 coins | 8.9% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pit-viper-field-tested) | 13.0% | $132 264 coins | 19.6% | 13 | 7.0 | 1.85× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 12.0% | $93.28 187 coins | 12.7% | 7 | 6.5 | 1.08× |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $58.94 118 coins | 6.7% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.11× |
| [AWP \| Doodle Lore (Field-Tested) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-doodle-lore-field-tested) | 10.0% | $49.51 99.01 coins | 5.6% | 10 | 5.4 | 1.85× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $41.20 82.39 coins | 2.8% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.62× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $23.04 46.07 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $18.99 37.97 coins | 1.3% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $9.67 19.34 coins | 0.7% | 1 | 3.2 | 0.31× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $6.51 13.02 coins | 0.6% | 4 | 4.3 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) | 16.6% | $0.83 1.66 coins | 0.2% | 6 | 9.0 | 0.67× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-well-worn) [Andushka](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Andushka) $97.61 195 coins $1,015 2,029 coins 10.39x 2026-11-07 21:17 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-boom-factory-new) Hidden $97.61 195 coins $557 1,113 coins 5.70x 2026-11-04 20:11 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=boom-headshot)

[AWP | Doodle Lore (Field-Tested) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-doodle-lore-field-tested) Hidden $97.61 195 coins $49.51 99.01 coins 0.51x 2026-11-10 16:28 UTC

[Souvenir AWP | Pit Viper (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pit-viper-field-tested) Hidden $97.61 195 coins $132 264 coins 1.35x 2026-11-10 16:28 UTC

[AWP | Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) Hidden $97.61 195 coins $18.99 37.97 coins 0.19x 2026-11-10 16:28 UTC

[AWP | Doodle Lore (Field-Tested) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-doodle-lore-field-tested) [Sanityy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Sanityy) $97.61 195 coins $49.51 99.01 coins 0.51x 2026-11-10 16:28 UTC

[Souvenir AWP | Pit Viper (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pit-viper-field-tested) Hidden $97.61 195 coins $132 264 coins 1.35x 2026-11-07 21:17 UTC

[AWP | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) Hidden $97.61 195 coins $6.51 13.02 coins 0.07x 2026-11-07 21:17 UTC

[AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) Hidden $97.61 195 coins $0.83 1.66 coins 0.01x 2026-11-07 21:17 UTC

[AWP | Doodle Lore (Field-Tested) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-doodle-lore-field-tested) Hidden $97.61 195 coins $49.51 99.01 coins 0.51x 2026-11-07 21:17 UTC

[AWP | Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) Hidden $97.61 195 coins $93.28 187 coins 0.96x 2026-11-07 21:17 UTC

[AWP | Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) Hidden $97.61 195 coins $18.99 37.97 coins 0.19x 2026-11-07 21:17 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $97.61 | 90.00% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 17.1% Classified 1.3% restricted 13.0% industrial 16.0% other 10.0% classified 42.6% best hit $1,015 (10.39x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt