--- title: "Bounty case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Bounty ($15.46) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 12 items with odds, observed 87.42% over 362 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bounty rendered: 2026-11-11T15:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Bounty](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bounty) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Bounty A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bounty?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bounty?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bounty) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bounty?window=all) Price · $15.46 · 30.92 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $13.91 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.42% · 362 openings, odds method Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 59.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 93.33% ±15.15 228 openings 7 days · 87.16% ±12.37 342 openings 30 days · 87.42% ±12.02 362 openings since tracking started · 87.42% ±12.02 362 openings 74.0% 91.5% 109.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bounty?window=24h) | 228 | 93.33% ±15.1 | +0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bounty?window=7d) | 342 | 87.16% ±12.4 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bounty) | 362 | 87.42% ±12.0 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bounty?window=all) | 362 | 87.42% ±12.0 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 362 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $251 503 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Souvenir XM1014 \| CaliCamo (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-calicamo-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $50.61 101 coins | 16.4% | 17 | 16.3 | 1.04× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $39.19 78.38 coins | 12.7% | 13 | 16.3 | 0.80× | | [Sawed-Off \| Orange DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-orange-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $34.27 68.53 coins | 11.1% | 16 | 16.3 | 0.98× | | [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $34.03 68.06 coins | 11.0% | 11 | 16.3 | 0.68× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $33.19 66.38 coins | 10.7% | 19 | 16.3 | 1.17× | | [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $30.12 60.24 coins | 9.7% | 19 | 16.3 | 1.17× | | [MAC-10 \| Graven (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $29.96 59.91 coins | 9.7% | 20 | 16.3 | 1.23× | | [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $27.81 55.62 coins | 9.0% | 14 | 16.3 | 0.86× | | [Sawed-Off \| First Class (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-first-class-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $26.94 53.88 coins | 8.7% | 15 | 16.3 | 0.92× | | [Nova \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.04 0.07 coins | 0.1% | 114 | 108.6 | 1.05× | | [MAG-7 \| Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) | 29.4% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 104 | 106.6 | 0.98× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=bounty) [Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $15.46 30.92 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:36 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $15.46 30.92 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:36 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $15.46 30.92 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:36 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $15.46 30.92 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:36 UTC [MAC-10 | Graven (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-factory-new) Hidden $15.46 30.92 coins $29.96 59.91 coins 1.94x 2026-11-11 15:36 UTC [MAC-10 | Propaganda (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-factory-new) Hidden $15.46 30.92 coins $27.81 55.62 coins 1.80x 2026-11-11 15:36 UTC [Sawed-Off | First Class (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-first-class-factory-new) Hidden $15.46 30.92 coins $26.94 53.88 coins 1.74x 2026-11-11 15:36 UTC [Souvenir XM1014 | CaliCamo (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-calicamo-factory-new) [BG2x](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BG2x) $15.46 30.92 coins $50.61 101 coins 3.27x 2026-11-11 15:36 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $15.46 30.92 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:33 UTC [Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-field-tested) Hidden $15.46 30.92 coins $30.12 60.24 coins 1.95x 2026-11-11 15:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.46 | 89.99% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert knife 0.1% other 4.5% covert 9.0% restricted 9.0% classified 9.0% #8847ff 4.5% mil spec 4.5% consumer 30.0% Consumer Grade 29.4% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt