---
title: "Breach Protocol case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Breach Protocol ($20.72) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 16 items with odds, observed 63.52% over 73 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/breach-protocol
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:20Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Breach Protocol](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/breach-protocol)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Breach Protocol

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/breach-protocol?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/breach-protocol?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/breach-protocol) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/breach-protocol?window=all)

Price · $20.72 · 41.44 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $18.65 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 63.52% · 73 openings, odds method

Variance · 6.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 4 openings · below min

7 days · 73 openings · below min

30 days · 73 openings · below min

since tracking started · 73 openings · below min

-0.5% 204.8% 410.0%

**Small sample.** 73 openings and 4.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/breach-protocol?window=24h) | 4 | 169.14% ±240.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/breach-protocol?window=7d) | 73 | 63.52% ±56.3 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/breach-protocol) | 73 | 63.52% ±56.3 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/breach-protocol?window=all) | 73 | 63.52% ±56.3 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 73 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $639 1,278 coins | 3.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $501 1,002 coins | 5.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $424 847 coins | 8.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $253 506 coins | 6.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $143 286 coins | 7.7% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-remote-control-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $140 280 coins | 7.5% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Leather (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-leather-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $102 205 coins | 5.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Eclipse (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-eclipse-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $102 204 coins | 5.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $102 203 coins | 5.5% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $65.61 131 coins | 8.8% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.10× |
| [Glock-18 \| Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sand-dune-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $62.66 125 coins | 8.4% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.10× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $62.54 125 coins | 8.4% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.55× |
| [Glock-18 \| Franklin (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $26.78 53.55 coins | 8.6% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.68× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Palm (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-palm-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $11.87 23.74 coins | 5.1% | 7 | 5.8 | 1.20× |
| [MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-factory-new) | 30.0% | $3.47 6.93 coins | 5.6% | 27 | 21.9 | 1.23× |
| [P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) | 42.4% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 28 | 30.9 | 0.91× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=breach-protocol)

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $20.72 41.44 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 19:56 UTC

[Souvenir Tec-9 | Remote Control (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-remote-control-factory-new) Hidden $20.72 41.44 coins $140 280 coins 6.76x 2026-11-10 19:56 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $20.72 41.44 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 19:56 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) [pooop](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/pooop) $20.72 41.44 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 19:56 UTC

[MAG-7 | Core Breach (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-factory-new) Hidden $20.72 41.44 coins $3.47 6.93 coins 0.17x 2026-11-10 07:55 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $20.72 41.44 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 07:55 UTC

[MAG-7 | Core Breach (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-factory-new) Hidden $20.72 41.44 coins $3.47 6.93 coins 0.17x 2026-11-10 07:55 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) [DemonDeeeeek](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/DemonDeeeeek) $20.72 41.44 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 07:55 UTC

[Glock-18 | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sand-dune-factory-new) Hidden $20.72 41.44 coins $62.66 125 coins 3.02x 2026-11-10 07:55 UTC

[Glock-18 | Franklin (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-factory-new) Hidden $20.72 41.44 coins $26.78 53.55 coins 1.29x 2026-11-10 07:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $20.72 | 89.99% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 3.6% Covert 0.2% Restricted 0.4% rare 0.5% classified 1.0% extraordinary 2.0% covert knife 1.0% Immortal 2.5% industrial 2.5% Mythical 6.0% #87c7ff 8.0% #8847ff 30.0% consumer 42.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt