--- title: "Brutal case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Brutal ($0.76) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.76% from 16 items with odds, observed 156.83% over 11.8K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/brutal rendered: 2026-11-11T17:03Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Brutal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/brutal) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Brutal A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/brutal?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/brutal?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/brutal) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/brutal?window=all) Price · $0.76 · 1.52 coins Advertised RTP · 89.76% · EV $0.68 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 156.83% · 11.8K openings, odds method Variance · 880.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 392 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 226.50% ±106.33 2,993 openings 7 days · 162.52% ±56.21 10.7K openings 30 days · 156.83% ±53.57 11.8K openings since tracking started · 156.83% ±53.57 11.8K openings 89.0% 211.2% 333.5% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 89.76% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (103.26% – 210.40%, 11,791 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/brutal?window=24h) | 2,993 | 226.50% ±106.3 | +2.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/brutal?window=7d) | 10.7K | 162.52% ±56.2 | +2.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/brutal) | 11.8K | 156.83% ±53.6 | +2.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/brutal?window=all) | 11.8K | 156.83% ±53.6 | +2.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.8K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Charm \| Baby Karat T charm · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-t) | 1 in 100,000 | $3,485 6,970 coins | 5.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| 3DMAX (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-3dmax-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100,000 | $3,314 6,628 coins | 4.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100,000 | $3,107 6,214 coins | 4.6% | 2 | 0.1 | — | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,694 5,388 coins | 3.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,545 5,091 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $289 579 coins | 4.2% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $285 570 coins | 4.2% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× | | [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $285 570 coins | 4.2% | 4 | 1.2 | 3.39× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $279 559 coins | 4.1% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.70× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $276 552 coins | 4.0% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.70× | | [Charm \| Lil' Crass charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-crass) | 1 in 1,000 | $31.00 62 coins | 4.5% | 14 | 11.8 | 1.19× | | [MAC-10 \| Graven (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $29.96 59.91 coins | 4.4% | 11 | 11.8 | 0.93× | | [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $29.21 58.42 coins | 4.3% | 16 | 11.8 | 1.36× | | [AWP \| Corticera (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $25.31 50.62 coins | 3.7% | 22 | 11.8 | 1.87× | | [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $25.16 50.31 coins | 3.7% | 12 | 11.8 | 1.02× | | [Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-field-tested) | 99.4% | $0.25 0.5 coins | 36.4% | 11,706 | 11727.5 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $0.76 1.52 coins $3,107 6,214 coins 4,088x 2026-11-10 19:01 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $0.76 1.52 coins $3,107 6,214 coins 4,088x 2026-11-09 20:15 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-urban-masked-field-tested) Hidden $0.76 1.52 coins $289 579 coins 380.9x 2026-11-10 19:08 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-field-tested) Hidden $0.76 1.52 coins $285 570 coins 374.9x 2026-11-09 20:20 UTC [AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $0.76 1.52 coins $285 570 coins 374.9x 2026-11-11 01:41 UTC [AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $0.76 1.52 coins $285 570 coins 374.9x 2026-11-09 19:32 UTC [AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $0.76 1.52 coins $285 570 coins 374.9x 2026-11-07 18:53 UTC [AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $0.76 1.52 coins $285 570 coins 374.9x 2026-11-03 03:22 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $0.76 1.52 coins $279 559 coins 367.5x 2026-11-10 19:04 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $0.76 1.52 coins $279 559 coins 367.5x 2026-11-05 19:47 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=brutal) [Sawed-Off | Limelight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-field-tested) Hidden $0.76 1.52 coins $0.25 0.5 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 16:23 UTC [Sawed-Off | Limelight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-field-tested) Hidden $0.76 1.52 coins $0.25 0.5 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 16:23 UTC [Sawed-Off | Limelight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-field-tested) Hidden $0.76 1.52 coins $0.25 0.5 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 16:23 UTC [Sawed-Off | Limelight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-field-tested) Hidden $0.76 1.52 coins $0.25 0.5 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 16:23 UTC [Sawed-Off | Limelight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-field-tested) Hidden $0.76 1.52 coins $0.25 0.5 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 16:23 UTC [Sawed-Off | Limelight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-field-tested) Hidden $0.76 1.52 coins $0.25 0.5 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 16:23 UTC [Sawed-Off | Limelight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-field-tested) Hidden $0.76 1.52 coins $0.25 0.5 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 16:23 UTC [Sawed-Off | Limelight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-field-tested) [Tomex](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Tomex) $0.76 1.52 coins $0.25 0.5 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 16:23 UTC [Sawed-Off | Limelight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-field-tested) Hidden $0.76 1.52 coins $0.25 0.5 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 16:23 UTC [Sawed-Off | Limelight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-field-tested) Hidden $0.76 1.52 coins $0.25 0.5 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 16:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.76 | 89.76% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #eb4b4b 0.0% remarkable 0.0% covert 0.0% knifes 0.0% epic 0.0% classified 0.1% sunny 0.0% uncommon 0.1% restricted 99.5% #d32ee6 0.1% Rare 0.1% best hit $3,107 (4,088x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.76 on average: an expected loss of $10.24 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt