--- title: "Buddy case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Buddy ($264.93) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 101.51% over 26 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/buddy rendered: 2026-11-12T09:55Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Buddy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/buddy) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Buddy A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/buddy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/buddy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/buddy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/buddy?window=all) Price · $264.93 · 530 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $238.44 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 101.51% · 26 openings, odds method Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 65.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 2 openings · below min 7 days · 18 openings · below min 30 days · 26 openings · below min since tracking started · 26 openings · below min -0.5% 127.8% 256.0% **Small sample.** 26 openings and 5.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/buddy?window=24h) | 2 | 110.01% ±145.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/buddy?window=7d) | 18 | 113.67% ±48.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/buddy) | 26 | 101.51% ±40.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/buddy?window=all) | 26 | 101.51% ±40.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 26 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $1,002 2,005 coins | 21.0% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $657 1,315 coins | 13.8% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $579 1,159 coins | 12.2% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.54× | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $525 1,051 coins | 11.0% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.31× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 20 | $450 900 coins | 9.4% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 20 | $416 831 coins | 8.7% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.31× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $276 552 coins | 5.8% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $245 491 coins | 5.1% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 20 | $235 470 coins | 4.9% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $201 401 coins | 4.2% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $150 300 coins | 3.1% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× | | [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-minimal-wear) | 45.0% | $3.52 7.03 coins | 0.7% | 11 | 11.7 | 0.94× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 12 Nov, 08:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) Hidden $265 530 coins $1,002 2,005 coins 3.78x 2026-11-10 23:49 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $265 530 coins $657 1,315 coins 2.48x 2026-11-10 23:49 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $265 530 coins $579 1,159 coins 2.19x 2026-11-12 03:20 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $265 530 coins $579 1,159 coins 2.19x 2026-11-10 23:49 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) Hidden $265 530 coins $525 1,051 coins 1.98x 2026-11-10 23:49 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) Hidden $265 530 coins $525 1,051 coins 1.98x 2026-11-10 23:49 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) [Rubix](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Rubix) $265 530 coins $525 1,051 coins 1.98x 2026-11-10 23:49 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=buddy) [Dual Berettas | Marina (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-minimal-wear) Hidden $265 530 coins $3.52 7.03 coins 0.01x 2026-11-12 03:20 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $265 530 coins $579 1,159 coins 2.19x 2026-11-12 03:20 UTC [Dual Berettas | Marina (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-minimal-wear) [Rubix](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Rubix) $265 530 coins $3.52 7.03 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 23:49 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) Hidden $265 530 coins $525 1,051 coins 1.98x 2026-11-10 23:49 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $265 530 coins $235 470 coins 0.89x 2026-11-10 23:49 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $265 530 coins $416 831 coins 1.57x 2026-11-10 23:49 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $265 530 coins $657 1,315 coins 2.48x 2026-11-10 23:49 UTC [Dual Berettas | Marina (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-minimal-wear) Hidden $265 530 coins $3.52 7.03 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 23:49 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) Hidden $265 530 coins $525 1,051 coins 1.98x 2026-11-10 23:49 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $265 530 coins $201 401 coins 0.76x 2026-11-10 23:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $265 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 20.0% epic 5.0% classified 5.0% Covert 5.0% covert knife 15.0% Knives 5.0% restricted 45.0% best hit $1,002 (3.78x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt