--- title: "Budget Baller case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Budget Baller ($2.00) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.94% from 14 items with odds, observed 93.19% over 15.9K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/budget-baller rendered: 2026-11-11T19:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Budget Baller](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/budget-baller) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Budget Baller A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/budget-baller?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/budget-baller?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/budget-baller) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/budget-baller?window=all) Price · $2.00 · 3.99 coins Advertised RTP · 89.94% · EV $1.79 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.19% · 15.9K openings, odds method Variance · 46.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 147.40% ±30.69 1,879 openings 7 days · 92.21% ±12.34 11.6K openings 30 days · 93.19% ±10.55 15.9K openings since tracking started · 93.19% ±10.55 15.9K openings 79.0% 128.8% 178.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/budget-baller?window=24h) | 1,879 | 147.40% ±30.7 | +3.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/budget-baller?window=7d) | 11.6K | 92.21% ±12.3 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/budget-baller) | 15.9K | 93.19% ±10.5 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/budget-baller?window=all) | 15.9K | 93.19% ±10.5 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.9K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,365 2,729 coins | 3.8% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $658 1,315 coins | 3.7% | 5 | 1.6 | 3.14× | | [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $240 481 coins | 6.7% | 2 | 8.0 | 0.25× | | [Glock-18 \| Franklin (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $26.78 53.55 coins | 14.9% | 186 | 159.3 | 1.17× | | [AUG \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $23.38 46.76 coins | 13.0% | 137 | 159.3 | 0.86× | | [USP-S \| Pathfinder (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pathfinder-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $18.06 36.11 coins | 10.1% | 166 | 159.3 | 1.04× | | [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $14.17 28.33 coins | 7.9% | 150 | 159.3 | 0.94× | | [P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-crimson-kimono-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $13.36 26.72 coins | 7.4% | 156 | 159.3 | 0.98× | | [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $4.96 9.91 coins | 8.3% | 431 | 477.8 | 0.90× | | [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $3.41 6.81 coins | 9.5% | 793 | 796.4 | 1.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $2.44 4.88 coins | 6.8% | 796 | 796.4 | 1.00× | | [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-field-tested) | 21.9% | $0.49 0.98 coins | 6.0% | 3,545 | 3493.6 | 1.01× | | [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 30.0% | $0.09 0.18 coins | 1.5% | 4,704 | 4778.1 | 0.98× | | [MP9 \| Orange Peel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-orange-peel-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.4% | 4,855 | 4778.1 | 1.02× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $2.00 3.99 coins $1,365 2,729 coins 684.1x 2026-11-11 15:22 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $2.00 3.99 coins $658 1,315 coins 329.6x 2026-11-11 18:10 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $2.00 3.99 coins $658 1,315 coins 329.6x 2026-11-11 07:06 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $2.00 3.99 coins $658 1,315 coins 329.6x 2026-11-04 05:33 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $2.00 3.99 coins $658 1,315 coins 329.6x 2026-11-03 22:20 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $2.00 3.99 coins $658 1,315 coins 329.6x 2026-11-03 21:50 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $2.00 3.99 coins $240 481 coins 120.4x 2026-11-09 07:03 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $2.00 3.99 coins $240 481 coins 120.4x 2026-11-07 17:57 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=budget-baller) [MAC-10 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-field-tested) Hidden $2.00 3.99 coins $3.41 6.81 coins 1.71x 2026-11-11 19:11 UTC [MP9 | Orange Peel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-orange-peel-field-tested) Hidden $2.00 3.99 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:11 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-factory-new) [Hazey00](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Hazey00) $2.00 3.99 coins $0.09 0.18 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:11 UTC [MP9 | Orange Peel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-orange-peel-field-tested) Hidden $2.00 3.99 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $2.00 3.99 coins $0.09 0.18 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC [MP9 | Orange Peel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-orange-peel-field-tested) [Hazey00](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Hazey00) $2.00 3.99 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $2.00 3.99 coins $0.09 0.18 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $2.00 3.99 coins $0.09 0.18 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC [MP9 | Orange Peel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-orange-peel-field-tested) [oskandle](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/oskandle) $2.00 3.99 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $2.00 3.99 coins $0.09 0.18 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.00 | 89.94% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.0% other 0.0% covert knife 0.1% Mythical 1.0% mil spec 6.0% industrial 32.0% #d32ee6 3.0% classified 5.0% #8847ff 21.9% consumer 30.0% best hit $1,365 (684.1x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.94 on average: an expected loss of $10.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt