--- title: "Budget Knife case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Budget Knife ($10.72) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.97% from 14 items with odds, observed 93.16% over 592 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/budget-knife rendered: 2026-11-11T18:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Budget Knife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/budget-knife) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Budget Knife A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/budget-knife?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/budget-knife?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/budget-knife) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/budget-knife?window=all) Price · $10.72 · 21.43 coins Advertised RTP · 89.97% · EV $9.64 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.16% · 592 openings, odds method Variance · 5.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 87.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 54.40% ±46.12 102 openings 7 days · 94.36% ±20.54 514 openings 30 days · 93.16% ±19.14 592 openings since tracking started · 93.16% ±19.14 592 openings 7.5% 61.5% 115.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/budget-knife?window=24h) | 102 | 54.40% ±46.1 | −1.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/budget-knife?window=7d) | 514 | 94.36% ±20.5 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/budget-knife) | 592 | 93.16% ±19.1 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/budget-knife?window=all) | 592 | 93.16% ±19.1 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 592 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $103 207 coins | 10.7% | 7 | 5.9 | 1.18× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $99.68 199 coins | 10.3% | 8 | 5.9 | 1.35× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $89.53 179 coins | 9.3% | 8 | 5.9 | 1.35× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $78.29 157 coins | 8.1% | 7 | 5.9 | 1.18× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $74.62 149 coins | 7.7% | 6 | 5.9 | 1.01× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $73.55 147 coins | 7.6% | 5 | 5.9 | 0.84× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $70.56 141 coins | 7.3% | 5 | 5.9 | 0.84× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $68.20 136 coins | 7.1% | 6 | 5.9 | 1.01× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $65.49 131 coins | 6.8% | 4 | 5.9 | 0.68× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $63.33 127 coins | 6.6% | 8 | 5.9 | 1.35× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $62.54 125 coins | 6.5% | 6 | 5.9 | 1.01× | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $57.70 115 coins | 6.0% | 3 | 5.9 | 0.51× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $56.72 113 coins | 5.9% | 4 | 5.9 | 0.68× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 87.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 515 | 515.0 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=budget-knife) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $10.72 21.43 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:27 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $10.72 21.43 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:27 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $10.72 21.43 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:27 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $10.72 21.43 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:27 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $10.72 21.43 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:27 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $10.72 21.43 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:27 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $10.72 21.43 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:27 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $10.72 21.43 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:27 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $10.72 21.43 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:26 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $10.72 21.43 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:26 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $10.72 | 89.97% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed sunny 1.0% covert knife 3.0% Covert 1.0% Immortal 2.0% covert 6.0% #4b69ff 87.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.97 on average: an expected loss of $10.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt