--- title: "Bulletproof case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Bulletproof ($116.50) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 39.49% over 8 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bulletproof rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Bulletproof](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bulletproof) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Bulletproof A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bulletproof?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bulletproof?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bulletproof) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bulletproof?window=all) Price · $116.50 · 233 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $104.85 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 39.49% · 8 openings, odds method Variance · 3.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 73.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 30 days · 8 openings · below min since tracking started · 8 openings · below min -0.5% 88.0% 176.5% **Small sample.** 8 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bulletproof?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bulletproof?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bulletproof) | 8 | 39.49% ±136.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bulletproof?window=all) | 8 | 39.49% ±136.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Negev \| Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,598 3,196 coins | 15.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,182 2,363 coins | 11.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $871 1,742 coins | 8.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [UMP-45 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $385 771 coins | 22.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $247 493 coins | 18.8% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-asiimov-factory-new) | 10.0% | $125 249 coins | 11.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Graven (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · SMGs](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-graven-factory-new) | 10.0% | $99.36 199 coins | 9.5% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [P90 \| Death Grip (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-factory-new) | 21.0% | $8.94 17.87 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× | | [MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-factory-new) | 21.0% | $5.23 10.45 coins | 1.0% | 4 | 1.7 | 2.38× | | [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-factory-new) | 21.0% | $0.62 1.24 coins | 0.1% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.19× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=bulletproof) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $116 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 36.0% restricted 22.0% epic 1.0% #eb4b4b 10.0% SMGs 10.0% #8847ff 21.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. 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