--- title: "Burst case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Burst ($4.67) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.95% from 16 items with odds, observed 108.09% over 986 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/burst rendered: 2026-11-11T15:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Burst](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/burst) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Burst A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/burst?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/burst?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/burst) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/burst?window=all) Price · $4.67 · 9.34 coins Advertised RTP · 89.95% · EV $4.20 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 108.09% · 986 openings, odds method Variance · 7.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 24 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 98.84% ±39.05 200 openings 7 days · 104.40% ±19.15 832 openings 30 days · 108.09% ±17.59 986 openings since tracking started · 108.09% ±17.59 986 openings 59.0% 98.8% 138.5% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 89.95% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (90.50% – 125.67%, 986 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/burst?window=24h) | 200 | 98.84% ±39.1 | +0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/burst?window=7d) | 832 | 104.40% ±19.1 | +1.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/burst) | 986 | 108.09% ±17.6 | +2.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/burst?window=all) | 986 | 108.09% ±17.6 | +2.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 986 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir FAMAS \| Colony (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-famas-colony-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $310 620 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [FAMAS \| Spitfire (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $127 254 coins | 3.0% | 2 | 1.0 | — | | [Souvenir FAMAS \| Teardown (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-famas-teardown-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $95.43 191 coins | 5.7% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.41× | | [Souvenir FAMAS \| Teardown (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Rifles](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-famas-teardown-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $85.79 172 coins | 6.1% | 5 | 3.0 | 1.69× | | [FAMAS \| Sundown (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $66.41 133 coins | 6.3% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.76× | | [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-roll-cage-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $57.88 116 coins | 6.9% | 7 | 4.9 | 1.42× | | [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $40.42 80.83 coins | 9.6% | 16 | 9.9 | 1.62× | | [FAMAS \| Meltdown (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meltdown-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $27.78 55.56 coins | 9.9% | 21 | 14.8 | 1.42× | | [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57 | $21.98 43.95 coins | 9.2% | 31 | 17.3 | 1.80× | | [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $12.93 25.85 coins | 6.2% | 15 | 19.7 | 0.76× | | [FAMAS \| Spitfire (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $11.31 22.62 coins | 6.7% | 27 | 24.7 | 1.10× | | [FAMAS \| Djinn (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $8.67 17.33 coins | 6.2% | 33 | 29.6 | 1.12× | | [FAMAS \| Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $4.27 8.53 coins | 6.1% | 64 | 59.2 | 1.08× | | [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $3.07 6.14 coins | 5.1% | 83 | 69.0 | 1.20× | | [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-field-tested) | 15.0% | $1.49 2.97 coins | 5.3% | 147 | 147.9 | 0.99× | | [FAMAS \| Decommissioned (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-decommissioned-factory-new) | 58.7% | $0.28 0.57 coins | 4.0% | 531 | 578.3 | 0.92× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=burst) [FAMAS | Decommissioned (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-decommissioned-factory-new) Hidden $4.67 9.34 coins $0.28 0.57 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:22 UTC [FAMAS | Decommissioned (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-decommissioned-factory-new) Hidden $4.67 9.34 coins $0.28 0.57 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:22 UTC [FAMAS | Decommissioned (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-decommissioned-factory-new) Hidden $4.67 9.34 coins $0.28 0.57 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:22 UTC [FAMAS | Roll Cage (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-field-tested) Hidden $4.67 9.34 coins $1.49 2.97 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 14:22 UTC [FAMAS | Roll Cage (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-field-tested) Hidden $4.67 9.34 coins $1.49 2.97 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 14:22 UTC [FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) Hidden $4.67 9.34 coins $4.27 8.53 coins 0.91x 2026-11-11 14:22 UTC [FAMAS | Decommissioned (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-decommissioned-factory-new) Hidden $4.67 9.34 coins $0.28 0.57 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:22 UTC [FAMAS | Decommissioned (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-decommissioned-factory-new) [piyeyooo](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/piyeyooo) $4.67 9.34 coins $0.28 0.57 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:22 UTC [FAMAS | Decommissioned (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-decommissioned-factory-new) Hidden $4.67 9.34 coins $0.28 0.57 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC [FAMAS | Decommissioned (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-decommissioned-factory-new) Hidden $4.67 9.34 coins $0.28 0.57 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.67 | 89.95% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 0.1% restricted 8.6% Mil Spec Grade 0.3% Rifles 0.3% #4b69ff 0.4% covert 17.5% classified 7.3% pink 7.0% mil spec 58.7% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.95 on average: an expected loss of $10.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt