--- title: "Butterfly mania case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Butterfly mania ($5,214.08) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 95.88% over 32 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/butterfly-mania rendered: 2026-11-11T21:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Butterfly mania](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/butterfly-mania) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Butterfly mania A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 11 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/butterfly-mania?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/butterfly-mania?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/butterfly-mania) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/butterfly-mania?window=all) Price · $5,214.08 · 10,428 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 95.88% · 32 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 32 openings · below min 7 days · 32 openings · below min 30 days · 32 openings · below min since tracking started · 32 openings · below min 70.0% 96.0% 122.0% **Small sample.** 32 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/butterfly-mania?window=24h) | 32 | 95.88% ±25.3 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/butterfly-mania?window=7d) | 32 | 95.88% ±25.3 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/butterfly-mania) | 32 | 95.88% ±25.3 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/butterfly-mania?window=all) | 32 | 95.88% ±25.3 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Chicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $5,214 10,428 coins $12.1K 24,151 coins 2.32x 2026-11-11 03:41 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Rhy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Rhy) $5,214 10,428 coins $12.1K 24,151 coins 2.32x 2026-11-11 03:41 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $5,214 10,428 coins $10.6K 21,246 coins 2.04x 2026-11-11 03:41 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $5,214 10,428 coins $10.6K 21,246 coins 2.04x 2026-11-11 03:41 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $5,214 10,428 coins $10.4K 20,866 coins 2.00x 2026-11-11 03:41 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $5,214 10,428 coins $10.4K 20,866 coins 2.00x 2026-11-11 03:41 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $5,214 10,428 coins $9,398 18,795 coins 1.80x 2026-11-11 03:41 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $5,214 10,428 coins $9,398 18,795 coins 1.80x 2026-11-11 03:41 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $5,214 10,428 coins $9,398 18,795 coins 1.80x 2026-11-11 03:41 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Rhy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Rhy) $5,214 10,428 coins $7,335 14,669 coins 1.41x 2026-11-11 03:41 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=butterfly-mania) [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $5,214 10,428 coins $1,918 3,835 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 03:42 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $5,214 10,428 coins $2,169 4,338 coins 0.42x 2026-11-11 03:42 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $5,214 10,428 coins $4,425 8,850 coins 0.85x 2026-11-11 03:42 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $5,214 10,428 coins $5,754 11,508 coins 1.10x 2026-11-11 03:42 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $5,214 10,428 coins $1,865 3,729 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 03:42 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $5,214 10,428 coins $2,643 5,286 coins 0.51x 2026-11-11 03:42 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $5,214 10,428 coins $2,169 4,338 coins 0.42x 2026-11-11 03:42 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [Rhy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Rhy) $5,214 10,428 coins $2,156 4,312 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 03:42 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $5,214 10,428 coins $2,935 5,870 coins 0.56x 2026-11-11 03:41 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $5,214 10,428 coins $10.4K 20,866 coins 2.00x 2026-11-11 03:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $12.1K (2.32x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 95.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $95.88 on average: an expected loss of $4.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt