---
title: "Bwuak Tuah case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Bwuak Tuah ($5.06) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 16 items with odds, observed 88.53% over 2,489 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bwuak-tuah
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:59Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Bwuak Tuah](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bwuak-tuah)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Bwuak Tuah

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bwuak-tuah?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bwuak-tuah?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bwuak-tuah) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bwuak-tuah?window=all)

Price · $5.06 · 10.11 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $4.55 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.53% · 2,489 openings, odds method

Variance · 9.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 67.29% ±36.45 282 openings

7 days · 85.39% ±15.29 1,603 openings

30 days · 88.53% ±12.27 2,489 openings

since tracking started · 88.53% ±12.27 2,489 openings

30.0% 67.3% 104.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bwuak-tuah?window=24h) | 282 | 67.29% ±36.5 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bwuak-tuah?window=7d) | 1,603 | 85.39% ±15.3 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bwuak-tuah) | 2,489 | 88.53% ±12.3 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/bwuak-tuah?window=all) | 2,489 | 88.53% ±12.3 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,489 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,301 2,602 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $250 500 coins | 2.8% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $56.72 113 coins | 6.2% | 14 | 12.4 | 1.12× |
| [USP-S \| Business Class (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $39.46 78.91 coins | 8.7% | 35 | 24.9 | 1.41× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $23.44 46.87 coins | 15.5% | 73 | 74.7 | 0.98× |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $12.86 25.71 coins | 17.0% | 151 | 149.3 | 1.01× |
| [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $8.81 17.61 coins | 13.6% | 187 | 174.2 | 1.07× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $6.30 12.59 coins | 11.1% | 194 | 199.1 | 0.97× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $4.58 9.15 coins | 6.0% | 132 | 149.3 | 0.88× |
| [SG 553 \| Barricade (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-barricade-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $2.74 5.48 coins | 4.2% | 175 | 174.2 | 1.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $2.60 5.19 coins | 4.6% | 191 | 199.1 | 0.96× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $1.69 3.37 coins | 2.6% | 184 | 174.2 | 1.06× |
| [XM1014 \| Seasons (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $1.52 3.04 coins | 2.3% | 163 | 174.2 | 0.94× |
| [UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.50 1 coins | 0.8% | 179 | 174.2 | 1.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) | 15.0% | $0.28 0.55 coins | 0.9% | 356 | 373.3 | 0.95× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-field-tested) | 17.4% | $0.27 0.53 coins | 1.0% | 455 | 434.1 | 1.05× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=bwuak-tuah)

[SG 553 | Barricade (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-barricade-field-tested) Hidden $5.06 10.11 coins $2.74 5.48 coins 0.54x 2026-11-11 21:43 UTC

[UMP-45 | Exposure (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-field-tested) Hidden $5.06 10.11 coins $0.27 0.53 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 21:43 UTC

[M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) Hidden $5.06 10.11 coins $0.28 0.55 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 21:43 UTC

[M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) Hidden $5.06 10.11 coins $0.28 0.55 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 21:43 UTC

[MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-field-tested) Hidden $5.06 10.11 coins $8.81 17.61 coins 1.74x 2026-11-11 21:43 UTC

[P250 | Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) [Clavicss](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Clavicss) $5.06 10.11 coins $1.69 3.37 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 21:43 UTC

[UMP-45 | Exposure (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-field-tested) Hidden $5.06 10.11 coins $0.27 0.53 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-factory-new) Hidden $5.06 10.11 coins $2.60 5.19 coins 0.51x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $5.06 10.11 coins $4.58 9.15 coins 0.91x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC

[MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) Hidden $5.06 10.11 coins $6.30 12.59 coins 1.25x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.06 | 89.98% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.6% mil spec 8.0% classified 9.0% restricted 14.0% Common 7.0% consumer 8.0% pink 7.0% Mythical 22.0% blue 7.0% violet 17.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt