--- title: "Canals case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Canals ($18.15) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 8 items with odds, observed 115.42% over 3,484 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/canals rendered: 2026-11-11T15:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Canals](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/canals) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Canals A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/canals?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/canals?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/canals) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/canals?window=all) Price · $18.15 · 36.3 coins Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $16.33 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 115.42% · 3,484 openings, odds method Variance · 106.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 385 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 97.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 280 openings · below min 7 days · 111.96% ±36.58 3,064 openings 30 days · 115.42% ±34.30 3,484 openings since tracking started · 115.42% ±34.30 3,484 openings -0.5% 118.8% 238.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/canals?window=24h) | 280 | 116.19% ±121.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/canals?window=7d) | 3,064 | 111.96% ±36.6 | +1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/canals) | 3,484 | 115.42% ±34.3 | +1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/canals?window=all) | 3,484 | 115.42% ±34.3 | +1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,484 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $4,962 9,924 coins | 21.3% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 1,111 | $2,877 5,753 coins | 15.9% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.59× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,813 5,625 coins | 17.2% | 6 | 3.5 | 1.72× | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 500 | $954 1,908 coins | 11.7% | 13 | 7.0 | 1.87× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 250 | $450 900 coins | 11.0% | 22 | 13.9 | 1.58× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $121 242 coins | 6.7% | 34 | 31.4 | 1.08× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $81.27 163 coins | 5.0% | 49 | 34.8 | 1.41× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-field-tested) | 97.2% | $1.90 3.8 coins | 11.3% | 3,354 | 3387.8 | 0.99× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $18.15 36.3 coins $4,962 9,924 coins 273.4x 2026-11-04 21:42 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $18.15 36.3 coins $2,877 5,753 coins 158.5x 2026-11-08 19:26 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $18.15 36.3 coins $2,877 5,753 coins 158.5x 2026-11-07 12:42 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $18.15 36.3 coins $2,877 5,753 coins 158.5x 2026-11-06 00:20 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) [cherrylea](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/cherrylea) $18.15 36.3 coins $2,877 5,753 coins 158.5x 2026-11-05 19:06 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $18.15 36.3 coins $2,877 5,753 coins 158.5x 2026-11-04 12:10 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $18.15 36.3 coins $2,813 5,625 coins 155.0x 2026-11-10 16:55 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $18.15 36.3 coins $2,813 5,625 coins 155.0x 2026-11-10 06:02 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $18.15 36.3 coins $2,813 5,625 coins 155.0x 2026-11-08 21:18 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $18.15 36.3 coins $2,813 5,625 coins 155.0x 2026-11-07 23:22 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=canals) [CZ75-Auto | Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-field-tested) Hidden $18.15 36.3 coins $1.90 3.8 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-field-tested) Hidden $18.15 36.3 coins $1.90 3.8 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-field-tested) Hidden $18.15 36.3 coins $1.90 3.8 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-field-tested) [eliboti](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/eliboti) $18.15 36.3 coins $1.90 3.8 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-field-tested) Hidden $18.15 36.3 coins $1.90 3.8 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-field-tested) Hidden $18.15 36.3 coins $1.90 3.8 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-field-tested) Hidden $18.15 36.3 coins $1.90 3.8 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-field-tested) [eliboti](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/eliboti) $18.15 36.3 coins $1.90 3.8 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-field-tested) Hidden $18.15 36.3 coins $1.90 3.8 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-field-tested) Hidden $18.15 36.3 coins $1.90 3.8 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $18.15 | 89.98% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.5% legendary 0.1% Covert 0.2% knifes 1.0% #4b69ff 97.2% best hit $4,962 (273.4x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt