--- title: "Candy Brick case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Candy Brick ($1.56) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.89% from 8 items with odds, observed 81.05% over 2,330 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/candy-brick rendered: 2026-11-11T16:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Candy Brick](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/candy-brick) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Candy Brick A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/candy-brick?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/candy-brick?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/candy-brick) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/candy-brick?window=all) Price · $1.56 · 3.11 coins Advertised RTP · 89.89% · EV $1.40 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 81.05% · 2,330 openings, odds method Variance · 10.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 51.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 98.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 75.95% ±35.52 310 openings 7 days · 79.85% ±13.58 2,120 openings 30 days · 81.05% ±12.96 2,330 openings since tracking started · 81.05% ±12.96 2,330 openings 40.0% 76.0% 112.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/candy-brick?window=24h) | 310 | 75.95% ±35.5 | −0.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/candy-brick?window=7d) | 2,120 | 79.85% ±13.6 | −1.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/candy-brick) | 2,330 | 81.05% ±13.0 | −1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/candy-brick?window=all) | 2,330 | 81.05% ±13.0 | −1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,334 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Five-SeveN \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $56.39 113 coins | 8.1% | 6 | 4.7 | 1.29× | | [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $43.68 87.36 coins | 15.6% | 8 | 11.7 | 0.69× | | [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $30.88 61.75 coins | 22.1% | 16 | 23.3 | 0.69× | | [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) | 49.3% | $1.53 3.05 coins | 53.8% | 1,163 | 1150.7 | 1.01× | | [MP9 \| Slide (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-slide-field-tested) | 12.0% | $0.02 0.04 coins | 0.2% | 264 | 280.1 | 0.94× | | [MP5-SD \| Dirt Drop (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-dirt-drop-field-tested) | 12.0% | $0.01 0.03 coins | 0.1% | 279 | 280.1 | 1.00× | | [P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-urban-hazard-field-tested) | 12.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.1% | 266 | 280.1 | 0.95× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 13.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 332 | 303.4 | 1.09× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=candy-brick) [MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-dirt-drop-field-tested) Hidden $1.56 3.11 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) Hidden $1.56 3.11 coins $1.53 3.05 coins 0.98x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) [chxngezs](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/chxngezs) $1.56 3.11 coins $1.53 3.05 coins 0.98x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) Hidden $1.56 3.11 coins $1.53 3.05 coins 0.98x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) Hidden $1.56 3.11 coins $1.53 3.05 coins 0.98x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC [P2000 | Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-urban-hazard-field-tested) Hidden $1.56 3.11 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC [MP9 | Slide (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-slide-field-tested) Hidden $1.56 3.11 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) Hidden $1.56 3.11 coins $1.53 3.05 coins 0.98x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $1.56 3.11 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:39 UTC [MP9 | Slide (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-slide-field-tested) Hidden $1.56 3.11 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.56 | 89.89% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Industrial Grade 0.2% restricted 1.5% covert 49.3% consumer 12.0% Consumer Grade 12.0% #4b69ff 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.89 on average: an expected loss of $10.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt