---
title: "Cappuccino Assassino case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Cappuccino Assassino ($31.87) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 16 items with odds, observed 59.92% over 66 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cappuccino-assassino
rendered: 2026-11-12T11:02Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Cappuccino Assassino](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cappuccino-assassino)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Cappuccino Assassino

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cappuccino-assassino?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cappuccino-assassino?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cappuccino-assassino) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cappuccino-assassino?window=all)

Price · $31.87 · 63.74 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $28.68 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 59.92% · 66 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 82.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 58 openings · below min

30 days · 66 openings · below min

since tracking started · 66 openings · below min

-0.5% 66.3% 133.0%

**Small sample.** 66 openings and 3.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cappuccino-assassino?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cappuccino-assassino?window=7d) | 58 | 63.47% ±68.8 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cappuccino-assassino) | 66 | 59.92% ±64.5 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cappuccino-assassino?window=all) | 66 | 59.92% ±64.5 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 66 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,551 3,102 coins | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000 | $914 1,828 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $743 1,487 coins | 5.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $595 1,191 coins | 5.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · gold · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 71 | $316 631 coins | 15.4% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $259 517 coins | 13.5% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 67 | $210 420 coins | 11.0% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [Souvenir AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $135 270 coins | 9.4% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $118 235 coins | 8.2% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [XM1014 \| Blaze Orange (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $80.02 160 coins | 7.0% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.82× |
| [Glock-18 \| Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sand-dune-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $62.66 125 coins | 6.6% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $37.64 75.28 coins | 4.6% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.87× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Nitro (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nitro-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $20.14 40.27 coins | 2.8% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.76× |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $12.52 25.03 coins | 2.0% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.01× |
| [G3SG1 \| Demeter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $5.02 10.04 coins | 0.9% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.21× |
| [G3SG1 \| Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) | 68.5% | $1.01 2.02 coins | 2.4% | 48 | 45.2 | 1.06× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 12 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=cappuccino-assassino)

[UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $31.87 63.74 coins $12.52 25.03 coins 0.39x 2026-11-10 22:50 UTC

[G3SG1 | Demeter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-field-tested) Hidden $31.87 63.74 coins $5.02 10.04 coins 0.16x 2026-11-10 22:50 UTC

[G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) Hidden $31.87 63.74 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.03x 2026-11-10 22:50 UTC

[XM1014 | Blaze Orange (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-factory-new) Hidden $31.87 63.74 coins $80.02 160 coins 2.51x 2026-11-10 22:50 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · gold · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $31.87 63.74 coins $316 631 coins 9.90x 2026-11-10 22:50 UTC

[G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) Hidden $31.87 63.74 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.03x 2026-11-10 22:50 UTC

[G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) Hidden $31.87 63.74 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.03x 2026-11-10 22:50 UTC

[G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) [foulito](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/foulito) $31.87 63.74 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.03x 2026-11-10 22:50 UTC

[G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) Hidden $31.87 63.74 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.03x 2026-11-10 22:48 UTC

[G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) Hidden $31.87 63.74 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.03x 2026-11-10 22:48 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $31.87 | 89.99% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 0.1% covert 5.3% classified 0.3% gold 1.4% covert knife 3.5% Industrial Grade 2.0% mil spec 84.5% industrial 3.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt