--- title: "Carnage case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Carnage ($15.82) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 12 items with odds, observed 87.88% over 785 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/carnage rendered: 2026-11-11T20:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Carnage](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/carnage) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Carnage A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/carnage?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/carnage?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/carnage) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/carnage?window=all) Price · $15.82 · 31.64 coins Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $14.23 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.88% · 785 openings, odds method Variance · 11.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 81 openings · below min 7 days · 89.88% ±26.07 629 openings 30 days · 87.88% ±23.33 785 openings since tracking started · 87.88% ±23.33 785 openings 17.5% 90.8% 164.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/carnage?window=24h) | 81 | 90.61% ±72.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/carnage?window=7d) | 629 | 89.88% ±26.1 | −0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/carnage) | 785 | 87.88% ±23.3 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/carnage?window=all) | 785 | 87.88% ±23.3 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 785 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,289 2,577 coins | 9.1% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-factory-new) | 1 in 571 | $419 837 coins | 5.1% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.73× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $373 745 coins | 6.5% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.02× | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $157 314 coins | 5.5% | 1 | 3.9 | 0.25× | | [Nova \| Blaze Orange (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-blaze-orange-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $96.18 192 coins | 6.8% | 6 | 7.9 | 0.76× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $89.12 178 coins | 8.8% | 11 | 11.0 | 1.00× | | [XM1014 \| Blaze Orange (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $80.02 160 coins | 8.9% | 12 | 12.4 | 0.97× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $48.14 96.27 coins | 13.5% | 28 | 31.4 | 0.89× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $47.57 95.13 coins | 13.4% | 38 | 31.4 | 1.21× | | [P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $26.85 53.7 coins | 11.3% | 53 | 47.1 | 1.13× | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $17.14 34.28 coins | 7.2% | 45 | 47.1 | 0.96× | | [R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) | 75.0% | $0.74 1.49 coins | 3.9% | 587 | 588.8 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Moto Gloves | POW! (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-factory-new) Hidden $15.82 31.64 coins $1,289 2,577 coins 81.45x 2026-11-06 13:10 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=carnage) [★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-field-tested) Hidden $15.82 31.64 coins $47.57 95.13 coins 3.01x 2026-11-11 19:58 UTC [XM1014 | Blaze Orange (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-factory-new) Hidden $15.82 31.64 coins $80.02 160 coins 5.06x 2026-11-11 19:58 UTC [R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $15.82 31.64 coins $0.74 1.49 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:58 UTC [R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $15.82 31.64 coins $0.74 1.49 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:58 UTC [R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $15.82 31.64 coins $0.74 1.49 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:58 UTC [R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) [Bufff](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Bufff) $15.82 31.64 coins $0.74 1.49 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:58 UTC [R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $15.82 31.64 coins $0.74 1.49 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC [R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $15.82 31.64 coins $0.74 1.49 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC [R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $15.82 31.64 coins $0.74 1.49 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC [R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $15.82 31.64 coins $0.74 1.49 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.82 | 89.98% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 4.3% epic 0.3% covert 13.9% mil spec 2.6% Immortal 4.0% blue 75.0% best hit $1,289 (81.45x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt