--- title: "Cartel Karambit case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Cartel Karambit ($4.79) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 82.64% over 1,717 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cartel-karambit rendered: 2026-11-11T20:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Cartel Karambit](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cartel-karambit) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Cartel Karambit A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cartel-karambit?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cartel-karambit?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cartel-karambit) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cartel-karambit?window=all) Price · $4.79 · 9.58 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $4.31 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.64% · 1,717 openings, odds method Variance · 11.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 90.76% ±41.43 264 openings 7 days · 81.66% ±17.56 1,469 openings 30 days · 82.64% ±16.25 1,717 openings since tracking started · 82.64% ±16.25 1,717 openings 48.5% 90.8% 133.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cartel-karambit?window=24h) | 264 | 90.76% ±41.4 | +0.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cartel-karambit?window=7d) | 1,469 | 81.66% ±17.6 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cartel-karambit) | 1,717 | 82.64% ±16.2 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cartel-karambit?window=all) | 1,717 | 82.64% ±16.2 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,717 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,258 2,517 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 12,500 | $799 1,598 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $508 1,016 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $259 517 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $57.54 115 coins | 40.0% | 51 | 51.5 | 0.99× | | [AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $14.60 29.19 coins | 16.9% | 75 | 85.9 | 0.87× | | [P250 \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $9.98 19.95 coins | 11.6% | 75 | 85.9 | 0.87× | | [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $7.51 15.01 coins | 8.7% | 99 | 85.9 | 1.15× | | [AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $5.10 10.2 coins | 5.9% | 75 | 85.9 | 0.87× | | [P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $3.26 6.51 coins | 3.8% | 95 | 85.9 | 1.11× | | [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.53 3.05 coins | 1.8% | 92 | 85.9 | 1.07× | | [Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-field-tested) | 67.0% | $0.39 0.77 coins | 6.0% | 1,155 | 1149.7 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=cartel-karambit) [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) Hidden $4.79 9.58 coins $7.51 15.01 coins 1.57x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC [Dual Berettas | Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-field-tested) Hidden $4.79 9.58 coins $0.39 0.77 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) Hidden $4.79 9.58 coins $7.51 15.01 coins 1.57x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) Hidden $4.79 9.58 coins $57.54 115 coins 12.01x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC [Dual Berettas | Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-field-tested) Hidden $4.79 9.58 coins $0.39 0.77 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC [Dual Berettas | Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-field-tested) Hidden $4.79 9.58 coins $0.39 0.77 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC [P250 | Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-factory-new) Hidden $4.79 9.58 coins $9.98 19.95 coins 2.08x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC [Dual Berettas | Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-field-tested) [kvaki](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/kvaki) $4.79 9.58 coins $0.39 0.77 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC [Dual Berettas | Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-field-tested) Hidden $4.79 9.58 coins $0.39 0.77 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC [AK-47 | Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-factory-new) Hidden $4.79 9.58 coins $14.60 29.19 coins 3.05x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.79 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.0% covert knife 3.0% classified 20.0% #4b69ff 67.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt