--- title: "Cashout case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Cashout ($35.24) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 3 items with odds, observed 79.21% over 22 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cashout rendered: 2026-11-11T13:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Cashout](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cashout) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Cashout A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cashout?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cashout?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cashout) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cashout?window=all) Price · $35.24 · 70.48 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $31.71 from 3 items Observed RTP, 30d · 79.21% · 22 openings, odds method Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 25.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 22 openings · below min 30 days · 22 openings · below min since tracking started · 22 openings · below min 30.0% 79.3% 128.5% **Small sample.** 22 openings and 5.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cashout?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cashout?window=7d) | 22 | 79.21% ±48.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cashout) | 22 | 79.21% ±48.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cashout?window=all) | 22 | 79.21% ±48.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 3 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 25.0% | $100 200 coins | 79.0% | 4 | 5.5 | 0.73× | | [SSG 08 \| Mayan Dreams (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mayan-dreams-factory-new) | 25.0% | $26.67 53.33 coins | 21.0% | 8 | 5.5 | 1.45× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) | 50.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 10 | 11.0 | 0.91× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=cashout) [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $35.24 70.48 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-06 16:17 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $35.24 70.48 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-06 16:17 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $35.24 70.48 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-06 16:17 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-scorched-field-tested) Hidden $35.24 70.48 coins $100 200 coins 2.84x 2026-11-06 16:17 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $35.24 70.48 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-06 16:17 UTC [SSG 08 | Mayan Dreams (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mayan-dreams-factory-new) Hidden $35.24 70.48 coins $26.67 53.33 coins 0.76x 2026-11-06 16:17 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $35.24 70.48 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-06 16:17 UTC [SSG 08 | Mayan Dreams (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mayan-dreams-factory-new) [Sorhex](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Sorhex) $35.24 70.48 coins $26.67 53.33 coins 0.76x 2026-11-06 16:17 UTC [SSG 08 | Mayan Dreams (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mayan-dreams-factory-new) Hidden $35.24 70.48 coins $26.67 53.33 coins 0.76x 2026-11-06 16:17 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-scorched-field-tested) Hidden $35.24 70.48 coins $100 200 coins 2.84x 2026-11-06 16:17 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $35.24 | 89.99% | 3 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 25.0% Industrial Grade 25.0% consumer 50.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt