--- title: "Castle case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Castle ($390.19) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 58.25% over 24 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/castle rendered: 2026-11-11T16:44Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Castle](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/castle) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Castle A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/castle?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/castle?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/castle) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/castle?window=all) Price · $390.19 · 780 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $351.17 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 58.25% · 24 openings, odds method Variance · 3.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.4% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 83.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 24 openings · below min 30 days · 24 openings · below min since tracking started · 24 openings · below min -0.5% 65.5% 131.5% **Small sample.** 24 openings and 2.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/castle?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/castle?window=7d) | 24 | 58.25% ±72.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/castle) | 24 | 58.25% ±72.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/castle?window=all) | 24 | 58.25% ±72.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Charm \| Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) | 1 in 100 | $5,000 10,000 coins | 14.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $3,086 6,171 coins | 17.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 45 | $1,197 2,393 coins | 7.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 40 | $1,138 2,277 coins | 8.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 37 | $1,138 2,276 coins | 8.8% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1,129 2,258 coins | 9.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $1,065 2,130 coins | 10.1% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [SG 553 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-factory-new) | 83.2% | $101 202 coins | 24.0% | 21 | 20.0 | 1.05× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $390 780 coins $1,138 2,276 coins 2.92x 2026-11-05 20:36 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $390 780 coins $1,129 2,258 coins 2.89x 2026-11-05 11:51 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $390 780 coins $1,065 2,130 coins 2.73x 2026-11-05 11:51 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=castle) [SG 553 | Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $390 780 coins $101 202 coins 0.26x 2026-11-05 20:36 UTC [SG 553 | Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $390 780 coins $101 202 coins 0.26x 2026-11-05 20:36 UTC [SG 553 | Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $390 780 coins $101 202 coins 0.26x 2026-11-05 20:36 UTC [SG 553 | Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $390 780 coins $101 202 coins 0.26x 2026-11-05 20:36 UTC [SG 553 | Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $390 780 coins $101 202 coins 0.26x 2026-11-05 20:36 UTC [SG 553 | Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $390 780 coins $101 202 coins 0.26x 2026-11-05 20:36 UTC [SG 553 | Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $390 780 coins $101 202 coins 0.26x 2026-11-05 20:36 UTC [SG 553 | Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-factory-new) [Bufff](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Bufff) $390 780 coins $101 202 coins 0.26x 2026-11-05 20:36 UTC [SG 553 | Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $390 780 coins $101 202 coins 0.26x 2026-11-05 20:36 UTC [SG 553 | Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $390 780 coins $101 202 coins 0.26x 2026-11-05 20:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $390 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed uncommon 1.0% covert 12.8% Covert 3.0% restricted 83.2% best hit $1,138 (2.92x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt