--- title: "Cat walk case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Cat walk ($7.31) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.95% from 8 items with odds, observed 91.67% over 1,401 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cat-walk rendered: 2026-11-11T18:12Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Cat walk](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cat-walk) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Cat walk A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cat-walk?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cat-walk?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cat-walk) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cat-walk?window=all) Price · $7.31 · 14.61 coins Advertised RTP · 89.95% · EV $6.57 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.67% · 1,401 openings, odds method Variance · 22.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 96.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 65 openings · below min 7 days · 94.34% ±30.06 948 openings 30 days · 91.67% ±24.73 1,401 openings since tracking started · 91.67% ±24.73 1,401 openings -0.5% 85.0% 170.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cat-walk?window=24h) | 65 | 54.85% ±114.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cat-walk?window=7d) | 948 | 94.34% ±30.1 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cat-walk) | 1,401 | 91.67% ±24.7 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cat-walk?window=all) | 1,401 | 91.67% ±24.7 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,401 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $315 630 coins | 47.9% | 14 | 14.0 | 1.00× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Head Shot (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-head-shot-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $153 306 coins | 23.3% | 15 | 14.0 | 1.07× | | [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $12.79 25.57 coins | 3.9% | 28 | 28.0 | 1.00× | | [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-factory-new) | 10.0% | $5.04 10.08 coins | 7.7% | 148 | 140.1 | 1.06× | | [Sawed-Off \| Sage Spray (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-sage-spray-factory-new) | 14.0% | $3.01 6.01 coins | 6.4% | 193 | 196.1 | 0.98× | | [Nova \| Ghost Camo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ghost-camo-factory-new) | 19.0% | $1.27 2.53 coins | 3.7% | 260 | 266.2 | 0.98× | | [Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) | 23.0% | $1.01 2.02 coins | 3.5% | 347 | 322.2 | 1.08× | | [XM1014 \| Incinegator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.80 1.6 coins | 3.7% | 396 | 420.3 | 0.94× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=cat-walk) [Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) Hidden $7.31 14.61 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-sage-spray-factory-new) Hidden $7.31 14.61 coins $3.01 6.01 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) Hidden $7.31 14.61 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-field-tested) Hidden $7.31 14.61 coins $0.80 1.6 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-field-tested) Hidden $7.31 14.61 coins $0.80 1.6 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) Hidden $7.31 14.61 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) Hidden $7.31 14.61 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 18:03 UTC [XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-field-tested) Hidden $7.31 14.61 coins $0.80 1.6 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 18:03 UTC [Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) Hidden $7.31 14.61 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 18:03 UTC [XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-field-tested) Hidden $7.31 14.61 coins $0.80 1.6 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 18:03 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.31 | 89.95% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.0% Legendary 2.0% classified 40.0% other 14.0% mil spec 19.0% restricted 23.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.95 on average: an expected loss of $10.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt