--- title: "Cawk On The Beach case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Cawk On The Beach ($23.53) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.98% from 8 items with odds, observed 58.76% over 212 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cawk-on-the-beach rendered: 2026-11-11T19:13Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Cawk On The Beach](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cawk-on-the-beach) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Cawk On The Beach A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cawk-on-the-beach?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cawk-on-the-beach?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cawk-on-the-beach) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cawk-on-the-beach?window=all) Price · $23.53 · 47.05 coins Advertised RTP · 88.98% · EV $20.93 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 58.76% · 212 openings, odds method Variance · 18.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 182 openings · below min 30 days · 212 openings · below min since tracking started · 212 openings · below min -0.5% 59.5% 119.5% **Small sample.** 212 openings and 4.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cawk-on-the-beach?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cawk-on-the-beach?window=7d) | 182 | 56.04% ±62.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cawk-on-the-beach) | 212 | 58.76% ±58.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cawk-on-the-beach?window=all) | 212 | 58.76% ±58.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 212 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $935 1,870 coins | 44.7% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $338 676 coins | 16.1% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $182 365 coins | 8.7% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.42× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $117 234 coins | 11.2% | 7 | 4.2 | 1.65× | | [Souvenir XM1014 \| CaliCamo (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-calicamo-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $91.19 182 coins | 8.7% | 7 | 4.2 | 1.65× | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $82.97 166 coins | 5.9% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.26× | | [Sawed-Off \| Copper (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-copper-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $61.37 123 coins | 4.4% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.26× | | [SG 553 \| Aerial (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aerial-field-tested) | 90.0% | $0.05 0.1 coins | 0.2% | 186 | 190.8 | 0.97× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=cawk-on-the-beach) [SG 553 | Aerial (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aerial-field-tested) Hidden $23.53 47.05 coins $0.05 0.1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 08:33 UTC [★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-factory-new) Hidden $23.53 47.05 coins $182 365 coins 7.76x 2026-11-10 08:33 UTC [SG 553 | Aerial (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aerial-field-tested) Hidden $23.53 47.05 coins $0.05 0.1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 08:33 UTC [SG 553 | Aerial (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aerial-field-tested) [DemonDeeeeek](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/DemonDeeeeek) $23.53 47.05 coins $0.05 0.1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 08:33 UTC [Souvenir XM1014 | CaliCamo (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-calicamo-well-worn) Hidden $23.53 47.05 coins $91.19 182 coins 3.88x 2026-11-10 08:33 UTC [SG 553 | Aerial (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aerial-field-tested) Hidden $23.53 47.05 coins $0.05 0.1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 08:33 UTC [SG 553 | Aerial (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aerial-field-tested) Hidden $23.53 47.05 coins $0.05 0.1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 08:11 UTC [SG 553 | Aerial (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aerial-field-tested) Hidden $23.53 47.05 coins $0.05 0.1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 08:11 UTC [SG 553 | Aerial (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aerial-field-tested) Hidden $23.53 47.05 coins $0.05 0.1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 08:11 UTC [SG 553 | Aerial (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aerial-field-tested) [DemonDeeeeek](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/DemonDeeeeek) $23.53 47.05 coins $0.05 0.1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 08:11 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $23.53 | 88.98% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 3.0% knifes 2.0% industrial 2.0% classified 1.5% blue 91.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.98 on average: an expected loss of $11.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt