---
title: "Cheapy case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Cheapy ($1.33) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.69% from 20 items with odds, observed 87.91% over 10.3K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cheapy
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Cheapy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cheapy)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Cheapy

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cheapy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cheapy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cheapy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cheapy?window=all)

Price · $1.33 · 2.66 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.69% · EV $1.19 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.91% · 10.3K openings, odds method

Variance · 14.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 40 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 89.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 92.12% ±21.52 1,199 openings

7 days · 87.08% ±8.31 8,034 openings

30 days · 87.91% ±7.34 10.3K openings

since tracking started · 87.91% ±7.34 10.3K openings

70.0% 92.3% 114.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cheapy?window=24h) | 1,199 | 92.12% ±21.5 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cheapy?window=7d) | 8,034 | 87.08% ±8.31 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cheapy) | 10.3K | 87.91% ±7.34 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cheapy?window=all) | 10.3K | 87.91% ±7.34 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $138 275 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pit-viper-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $132 264 coins | 1.1% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.97× |
| [Souvenir P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $127 254 coins | 1.1% | 4 | 1.0 | 3.88× |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $46.72 93.43 coins | 9.8% | 13 | 25.7 | 0.50× |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $45.68 91.35 coins | 9.6% | 25 | 25.7 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $19.95 39.9 coins | 8.4% | 51 | 51.5 | 0.99× |
| [Nova \| Quick Sand (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-quick-sand-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $18.09 36.17 coins | 7.6% | 74 | 51.5 | 1.44× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $16.57 33.13 coins | 6.9% | 39 | 51.5 | 0.76× |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $14.72 29.43 coins | 6.2% | 52 | 51.5 | 1.01× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $13.79 27.57 coins | 5.8% | 66 | 51.5 | 1.28× |
| [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $12.90 25.79 coins | 16.2% | 145 | 154.5 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $5.10 10.2 coins | 6.4% | 145 | 154.5 | 0.94× |
| [Tec-9 \| Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-titanium-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $5.07 10.14 coins | 6.4% | 117 | 154.5 | 0.76× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $5.04 10.08 coins | 6.3% | 178 | 154.5 | 1.15× |
| [P2000 \| Coach Class (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coach-class-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $5.03 10.05 coins | 6.3% | 154 | 154.5 | 1.00× |
| [Nova \| Mandrel (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-mandrel-field-tested) | 17.5% | $0.02 0.04 coins | 0.3% | 1,837 | 1802.1 | 1.02× |
| [MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-field-tested) | 17.5% | $0.01 0.03 coins | 0.2% | 1,766 | 1802.1 | 0.98× |
| [FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-well-worn) | 17.5% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.1% | 1,863 | 1802.1 | 1.03× |
| [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 19.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 1,891 | 1956.6 | 0.97× |
| [FAMAS \| Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) | 18.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 1,877 | 1850.6 | 1.01× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Souvenir AWP | Pit Viper (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pit-viper-field-tested) Hidden $1.33 2.66 coins $132 264 coins 99.35x 2026-11-05 10:39 UTC

[Souvenir P250 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.33 2.66 coins $127 254 coins 95.63x 2026-11-10 23:33 UTC

[Souvenir P250 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.33 2.66 coins $127 254 coins 95.63x 2026-11-06 15:47 UTC

[Souvenir P250 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.33 2.66 coins $127 254 coins 95.63x 2026-11-04 16:07 UTC

[Souvenir P250 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.33 2.66 coins $127 254 coins 95.63x 2026-11-03 15:12 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=cheapy)

[MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-field-tested) Hidden $1.33 2.66 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC

[MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-field-tested) Hidden $1.33 2.66 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC

[FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $1.33 2.66 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC

[FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $1.33 2.66 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC

[FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-well-worn) Hidden $1.33 2.66 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC

[FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-well-worn) [420Skabais](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/420Skabais) $1.33 2.66 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC

[MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-field-tested) Hidden $1.33 2.66 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

[FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-well-worn) Hidden $1.33 2.66 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

[Nova | Mandrel (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-mandrel-field-tested) Hidden $1.33 2.66 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

[FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-well-worn) Hidden $1.33 2.66 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.33 | 89.69% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #ffd700 0.0% restricted 2.3% Restricted 0.0% classified 2.3% covert 1.0% Mil Spec Grade 0.5% Rare 1.5% Mil Spec 1.5% Uncommon 1.5% Common 17.5% #4b69ff 36.5% industrial 17.5% consumer 18.0% best hit $132 (99.35x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.69 on average: an expected loss of $10.31 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt