--- title: "Cheeky Shaker case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Cheeky Shaker ($1,376.01) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 47.25% over 16 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cheeky-shaker rendered: 2026-11-11T19:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Cheeky Shaker](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cheeky-shaker) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Cheeky Shaker A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cheeky-shaker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cheeky-shaker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cheeky-shaker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cheeky-shaker?window=all) Price · $1,376.01 · 2,752 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $1,238.40 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 47.25% · 16 openings, odds method Variance · 3.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 16 openings · below min 30 days · 16 openings · below min since tracking started · 16 openings · below min -0.5% 68.5% 137.5% **Small sample.** 16 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cheeky-shaker?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cheeky-shaker?window=7d) | 16 | 47.25% ±89.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cheeky-shaker) | 16 | 47.25% ±89.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cheeky-shaker?window=all) | 16 | 47.25% ±89.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $24.8K 49,625 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 200 | $12.1K 24,151 coins | 4.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $9,925 19,850 coins | 6.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $9,355 18,710 coins | 7.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $8,338 16,675 coins | 6.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 100 | $7,714 15,428 coins | 6.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $7,137 14,274 coins | 5.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 50 | $6,648 13,296 coins | 10.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 50 | $6,328 12,655 coins | 10.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Sticker \| HEN1 (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hen1-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 40 | $4,137 8,274 coins | 8.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 33 | $3,617 7,234 coins | 8.8% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $3,140 6,279 coins | 7.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $2,023 4,047 coins | 10.9% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.80× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $125 251 coins | 2.5% | 4 | 4.0 | 1.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 25.0% | $50.58 101 coins | 1.0% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.75× | | [P2000 \| Coach Class (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coach-class-factory-new) | 25.4% | $12.58 25.15 coins | 0.3% | 5 | 4.1 | 1.23× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $1,376 2,752 coins $3,617 7,234 coins 2.63x 2026-11-06 17:12 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-factory-new) Hidden $1,376 2,752 coins $2,023 4,047 coins 1.47x 2026-11-06 17:12 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-factory-new) Hidden $1,376 2,752 coins $2,023 4,047 coins 1.47x 2026-11-06 17:12 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-factory-new) Hidden $1,376 2,752 coins $2,023 4,047 coins 1.47x 2026-11-05 09:42 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=cheeky-shaker) [★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-factory-new) Hidden $1,376 2,752 coins $2,023 4,047 coins 1.47x 2026-11-06 17:12 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,376 2,752 coins $125 251 coins 0.09x 2026-11-06 17:12 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-factory-new) Hidden $1,376 2,752 coins $2,023 4,047 coins 1.47x 2026-11-06 17:12 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $1,376 2,752 coins $3,617 7,234 coins 2.63x 2026-11-06 17:12 UTC [P2000 | Coach Class (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coach-class-factory-new) Hidden $1,376 2,752 coins $12.58 25.15 coins 0.01x 2026-11-06 17:12 UTC [M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) Hidden $1,376 2,752 coins $50.58 101 coins 0.04x 2026-11-06 17:12 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,376 2,752 coins $125 251 coins 0.09x 2026-11-06 17:12 UTC [M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) [divaxxdiva](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/divaxxdiva) $1,376 2,752 coins $50.58 101 coins 0.04x 2026-11-06 17:12 UTC [P2000 | Coach Class (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coach-class-factory-new) Hidden $1,376 2,752 coins $12.58 25.15 coins 0.01x 2026-11-05 09:42 UTC [P2000 | Coach Class (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coach-class-factory-new) Hidden $1,376 2,752 coins $12.58 25.15 coins 0.01x 2026-11-05 09:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,376 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 58.4% extraordinary 4.5% remarkable 2.0% legendary 9.7% industrial 25.4% best hit $3,617 (2.63x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt